My assessment of the situation: Clinton will almost certainly be the nominee. I am voting Sanders in the primary and am encouraging everyone to vote Sanders in the primary but I simply see the numbers coming down heavy in Clinton's favor. Quite frankly, I would be absolutely fine with a Clinton nomination. I want Sanders to run and win but the demographics strongly suggest there aren't enough young persons to counteract all the baby boomer democrats who will never ever vote for someone with the tag "socialist".
I do think that, if the convention was held today, Trump would be the nominee. Each day that goes by pushes him more and more towards that. Now, it's clear that most Kasich voters will go for Rubio, and most Carson voters will go for Cruz, once they drop out. Virtually all Rubio/Kasich voters would vote for Cruz before Trump. But here's the important point: a very solid portion of Cruz voters would vote for Trump before Rubio. Certainly not a majority, but maybe 35%. So here's what I see happening:
- Establishment Republicans push Carson and Kasich to both drop out and endorse Rubio.
- Both drop out after Super Tuesday, Rubio gets most of their votes.
- We end up with about Trump 35%, Cruz 35%, Rubio 30% - essentially a dead heat.
- The haunting realization dawns on the GOP that Cruz dropping out = Trump win, because enough Cruz voters go to Trump; if Rubio drops out, though, Cruz gets most of his voters.
- Just before the convention, Rubio plays good boy, follows orders, and drops out so Trump will not win. CRUZ gets the nomination
Ok, so, therefore, my prediction is Clinton v. Cruz. So, who are the running mates?
Clinton will want someone from a swing state, but I'm not sure anyone will present themselves. I could make a very strong case for Cory Booker, Senator from New Jersey. Booker is a young, African-American graduate from Yale Law School (by far the best in the country) who served a very successful couple of terms as they mayor of Newark. He has presidential aspirations, it is rumored, and he will be 55 years old at the end of two Clinton terms, if she wins. Even if she loses, he will get major national name recognition and after one or two Republican terms will probably look pretty darn good to the left.
If Cruz wins, I could absolutely see him taking on Kasich. That would likely swing Ohio red, and would show voters that Cruz isn't afraid to go mainstream or have someone in his staff who disagrees with him on, ahem, evangelical points.
If it's Clinton/Warren, Booker, or someone similar vs. Cruz/Kasich or someone similar, I'd predict a moderate Clinton victory, something like 298-240. Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia could all turn red from 2012, with maybe Missouri swinging blue.
I do think that, if the convention was held today, Trump would be the nominee. Each day that goes by pushes him more and more towards that. Now, it's clear that most Kasich voters will go for Rubio, and most Carson voters will go for Cruz, once they drop out. Virtually all Rubio/Kasich voters would vote for Cruz before Trump. But here's the important point: a very solid portion of Cruz voters would vote for Trump before Rubio. Certainly not a majority, but maybe 35%. So here's what I see happening:
- Establishment Republicans push Carson and Kasich to both drop out and endorse Rubio.
- Both drop out after Super Tuesday, Rubio gets most of their votes.
- We end up with about Trump 35%, Cruz 35%, Rubio 30% - essentially a dead heat.
- The haunting realization dawns on the GOP that Cruz dropping out = Trump win, because enough Cruz voters go to Trump; if Rubio drops out, though, Cruz gets most of his voters.
- Just before the convention, Rubio plays good boy, follows orders, and drops out so Trump will not win. CRUZ gets the nomination
Ok, so, therefore, my prediction is Clinton v. Cruz. So, who are the running mates?
Clinton will want someone from a swing state, but I'm not sure anyone will present themselves. I could make a very strong case for Cory Booker, Senator from New Jersey. Booker is a young, African-American graduate from Yale Law School (by far the best in the country) who served a very successful couple of terms as they mayor of Newark. He has presidential aspirations, it is rumored, and he will be 55 years old at the end of two Clinton terms, if she wins. Even if she loses, he will get major national name recognition and after one or two Republican terms will probably look pretty darn good to the left.
If Cruz wins, I could absolutely see him taking on Kasich. That would likely swing Ohio red, and would show voters that Cruz isn't afraid to go mainstream or have someone in his staff who disagrees with him on, ahem, evangelical points.
If it's Clinton/Warren, Booker, or someone similar vs. Cruz/Kasich or someone similar, I'd predict a moderate Clinton victory, something like 298-240. Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia could all turn red from 2012, with maybe Missouri swinging blue.
How will we know, when the morning comes, we are still human? - 2D
Don't worry, my friend. If this be the end, then so shall it be.
Don't worry, my friend. If this be the end, then so shall it be.
