(March 11, 2016 at 11:17 am)Rhythm Wrote: Let's see some maths Steve. Throwing the word probability around won't mean much without that. Come up with a formula, define your variables...and when you're done....I'll remind you it was all for naught. People win the lottery, after all.
Burden shifting noted, and ignored.
I am NOT a mathematician, but here is a cut and paste of the equation.
Pr(H/E&K) = Pr(H/K) x Pr(E/H&K)
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Pr(E/K)
Earman says It is helpful to think of H as the hypothesis at issue, K as the background knowledge, and E as the new evidence. Pr(H/K&E) and Pr(H/ K) are called, respectively, the posterior and priorprobability of H. Pr(E/ K&H) is called the likelihood of H; it is a measure of how well H explains E. Pr(E/K) is variously called the prior likelihood or the expectancy of E; it is a measure of how surprising the new evidence E is.
http://www.humesociety.org/hs/issues/v28...-v28n1.pdf
Are you skeptical when there is a report of a lottery winner because of the improbability? No, because the probability that the report is true of a lottery winner is high because the probability of a false report is low.
