RE: Fruit trees and necessity
May 27, 2016 at 9:12 am
(This post was last modified: May 27, 2016 at 9:17 am by The Grand Nudger.)
1 We make estimates -regarding- fruit set according to certain conditions, that much is certainly true. Those estimates provide a useful projection of average yields within lower and upper boundaries. That much is also certainly true.
Outliers at the extreme high and low ends are excluded (because they would spike the average out of proportion to their contribution), and there are always outliers...acres under crop that did not yield to our expectations based upon the conditions. We assume that there are unknown conditions, or unknown interplays between known conditions, but the presence and neccessity of that assumption actually erodes the premise underlying all of those estimates. We can only say, with certainty, that there is a strong correspondence between chilling hours, for example - and fruit set on deciduous trees.
Whether a tree does, or is even capable of doing anything according to anything would be another issue. I don't know, but discounting dryads and ents entirely (as we discount fairy pollination above as an explanation for outliers).....I don't think so. It does what it does, what it can do, all of the according is on our end.
2 I think that this restatement exacerbates the problems of the initial formulation.
Outliers at the extreme high and low ends are excluded (because they would spike the average out of proportion to their contribution), and there are always outliers...acres under crop that did not yield to our expectations based upon the conditions. We assume that there are unknown conditions, or unknown interplays between known conditions, but the presence and neccessity of that assumption actually erodes the premise underlying all of those estimates. We can only say, with certainty, that there is a strong correspondence between chilling hours, for example - and fruit set on deciduous trees.
Whether a tree does, or is even capable of doing anything according to anything would be another issue. I don't know, but discounting dryads and ents entirely (as we discount fairy pollination above as an explanation for outliers).....I don't think so. It does what it does, what it can do, all of the according is on our end.
2 I think that this restatement exacerbates the problems of the initial formulation.
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