(April 22, 2021 at 2:26 pm)FlatAssembler Wrote: That model (on which the famous claim that 3 million lives have been saved by lockdowns here in Europe) did not just incorrectly model the spread of COVID in pre-lockdown Sweden, it drastically overestimated deaths that will be caused by COVID in every single country. Be it with a lockdown or without a lockdown. Only for the USA did that model at least get the order of magnitude right. For most countries, it was 10 or more times off.
I remember the modelling debate earlier last year. There was no problem with the models. They gave envelopes based on behavioral change. The worst-case outcomes were based on no behavioral or government change. Obviously that is never going to happen. People don't just do the same things during a pandemic, lockdown or not. The creators of the models said that people were misconstruing their models.
Of course, some of the knowledge of COVID has improved, and modelling has become more accurate. We are in a 3rd wave in our country, and the worst-case modelling based on moderate restrictions was getting toward India-like levels. Obviously, those aren't going to happen, because of new restrictions, and the population (at least the reasonable part of it) understanding what is going on.
