RE: Where did the universe come from? Atheistic origin science has no answer.
May 22, 2014 at 1:03 pm
(This post was last modified: May 22, 2014 at 1:52 pm by Coffee Jesus.)
(May 22, 2014 at 2:49 am)snowtracks Wrote:(May 8, 2014 at 9:02 am)Tonus Wrote: Or conversely, none of this time or resources were expended for the benefit on the human species. We're just a lucky roll of the dice on the way to whatever the actual end result turns out to be.nice try with the luck thing; but too many events that were spot on happened. when all added together, luck is not considered.
Snowtracks, I have a problem with this design hypothesis.
To say that a god caused it is analogous to saying that the dice were loaded. Suppose I roll two dice, and I roll an 8 as the sum of the two dice numbers. This event isn't technically random. A physicist could do a complicated analysis of their motion to explain how they landed 8. On the other hand, I could accuse John of loading the dice on 8 such that they probably would have rolled 8 regardless of the precise mechanics of their motion. Either explanation would be sufficient. After all, the right explanation doesn't have to be the simplest one.
Okay, but the physicist's explanation would be so complicated that it would still appear "random" to you. You're looking for a simple explanation, an explanation that you can appeal to in the absence of such complicated information. So how do you support the hypothesis that the dice were loaded? Here are the variables we have to consider.
P(L) = the probability that the dice were loaded
P(E) = the (unconditional) probability that the dice were loaded to roll an 8
P(E|L) = the probability that the dice were loaded to roll an 8 under the condition that they were loaded
P(E) = the (unconditional) probability that the dice were loaded to roll an 8
P(E|L) = the probability that the dice were loaded to roll an 8 under the condition that they were loaded
You want to argue that P(L) is high, that is, that the dice were probably loaded.
The fact that you rolled an 8 increases P(E|L). That is, having rolled an 8, you can say that they were more likely to be loaded on 8 under the condition that they were loaded.
While increasing P(E|L) does increase P(E), it does not increase P(L). That is, with an increased probability that they were loaded on 8 under the condition that they were loaded, there is also an increase in the unconditional probability that they were loaded on 8. But this tells us nothing about the probability that the dice were loaded. To support the claim that the dice were loaded, you need to give a separate argument for why you think loaded dice would have been more likely to be loaded on 8. Maybe John wanted me to roll 8 so that my Monopoly piece would land on his hotel. That argument would work. I'm not convinced that there is a similar argument for a god loading the dice on the Big Bang.
It's no wonder that people think a god loaded the dice on 8. After all, if the god hadn't loaded them on 8, it wouldn't have rolled an 8. Hence us 8-like beings fashioned our gods after us. But that seems to be the only reason for why we have fashioned our gods as we did. If there is a god, it must be like us--If the dice were loaded, they must have been loaded on 8. So what?