(September 14, 2016 at 5:35 pm)The Gentleman Bastard Wrote:(September 14, 2016 at 4:35 pm)Crossless1 Wrote: I don't follow football nearly as closely as I did even a few years ago, so for me, especially this early in the season, it is largely guesswork.
I don't think a .500 record at the end of a season is necessarily an indication that you are just guessing or don't know what you're doing. Of all the professional sports leagues, the NFL seems to have done the best job of creating something like true parity (I know, Browns fans, I know ). If you look at the point spreads week by week, you won't find a high percentage among them in which a large, blow out spread is predicted.
For what it's worth, here's an article that breaks down the probability of favorites and underdogs winning according to the size of the point spread (based on past season performances):
http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
That article is about the teams covering the spread, not necessarily winning outright.
Arrrrggggg...... This is just for fun. If you look at the winners and losers over the period of the season as far as picks, and I noticed this last year too, it will fluctuate and you will have good weeks and bad weeks. And even with the spread, especially with rival division games, you cannot treat "the spread" as gospel. If you pick for fun, and you have a relative idea of which teams have done well on average long term over multiple seasons you will still miss, but you will do better. "The spread" is overrated to me.
Washington is the only team I will pick all 16 games, yea it's unrealistic, but I am a fan. Outside that, I simply judge long term looking into the past and consider division rivalries and home and away.