(September 14, 2016 at 5:35 pm)The Gentleman Bastard Wrote:(September 14, 2016 at 4:35 pm)Crossless1 Wrote: I don't follow football nearly as closely as I did even a few years ago, so for me, especially this early in the season, it is largely guesswork.
I don't think a .500 record at the end of a season is necessarily an indication that you are just guessing or don't know what you're doing. Of all the professional sports leagues, the NFL seems to have done the best job of creating something like true parity (I know, Browns fans, I know ). If you look at the point spreads week by week, you won't find a high percentage among them in which a large, blow out spread is predicted.
For what it's worth, here's an article that breaks down the probability of favorites and underdogs winning according to the size of the point spread (based on past season performances):
http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
That article is about the teams covering the spread, not necessarily winning outright.
Right. But the percentage of outright wins for favorites covering the various spreads is helpful in determining the likelihood of those same teams winning by any margin. It's all rough and ready, anyway, and was offered simply as food for thought. Vegas odds-makers obviously aren't the last word. As they say, "That's why they play the game."