(December 6, 2016 at 10:08 pm)paulpablo Wrote: I would gamble on America winning a war against China.
We would need to understand what the objectives are and how they would be attained. Neither China nor the US will wage a war to conquer one another, that's a sure way to lose with very high casualties either from a foolish land invasion or more foolish nuclear exchange.
China might invade Taiwan if they feel it is pushing for independence. The US would need to defend Taiwan from attack, most likely on the island itself, leaving China free from any concerns of invasion. Even assuming we succeed, this is an island nation that is less than 200 miles from China and across the entire Pacific for the USA. It's main resource is its people. That means military bases and lots of personnel just like we have in South Korea, with the understanding that if China decided to strike again they might inflict significant losses before the US could respond in force again. It also means significant aid to the Taiwanese if a war caused damage to infrastructure, as it likely would. If I'm the US I don't like any of those scenarios and am likely to seek some kind of negotiation or accommodation from the start because a war would be costly and an almost certain failure.
And even before we get to any of that, we have two nations who would suffer economic harm from a war. Possibly massive economic harm. So if the USA came up to China seeking a peaceful resolution, they would listen. And we would need to weigh the cost of swallowing our pride against a huge military mess with the attendant loss of life and cost in money and material.
"Well, evolution is a theory. It is also a fact. And facts and theories are different things, not rungs in a hierarchy of increasing certainty. Facts are the world's data. Theories are structures of ideas that explain and interpret facts. Facts don't go away when scientists debate rival theories to explain them. Einstein's theory of gravitation replaced Newton's in this century, but apples didn't suspend themselves in midair, pending the outcome. And humans evolved from ape- like ancestors whether they did so by Darwin's proposed mechanism or by some other yet to be discovered."
-Stephen Jay Gould
-Stephen Jay Gould