Here's what happened when Obama took office in 2008: He had a Democrat House and Senate. He passed some things very unpopular with the right. The Republicans rallied and took 63 seats in the House, winning back the majority. They gained six seats in the Senate, closing the gap between them and the Democrat majority significantly. They've kept the House ever since. The Democrats kept the Senate in 2012, but in 2014, at least partly through unprecedented Super PAC spending (3.7 B total spending, a record), and with a record low turnout; the Republicans increased their majority in the House and took the Senate.
In a sense, the Obama presidency gave us the results of the recent election. The rise of the Tea Party, the rise of fake news, Democrat voter apathy, the rise of Trump...all at least in part a reaction to having Obama in the white house.
The Republicans are sitting pretty right now, but they've never been more vulnerable. Their model for winning is not sustainable in an America that grows more diverse every year, and with Trump, they're stuck with that model. They've set the stage for a Democrat backlash against Trump as intense as the Republican one against Obama. And frankly, I see a lot of Trump voters defecting after a year or two of seeing him in action.
If Democrats can't take back the Senate in 2018 under these conditions, they'll have no one but themselves to blame, it's theirs if they want it bad enough. All they have to do is freaking show up to vote. In 2020 they could be in a better position than they would have been if Clinton had won. There will be shit to clean up, but that's when Democrats win, when the crap has piled up so high the majority realizes they need someone else to clean it out.
The main thing Trump could do to win a 2nd Term is start a war; Americans are reluctant to shift commanders-in-chief in the middle of a war. That would leave a bigger mess to clean up in 2024, but would guarantee a Democrat majority. Not much of a bright side in the short term; but the Republicans will never be able to win the white house again the same way Trump got in. Trump was an act of desperation for a party that's no longer truly viable in its present form.
In a sense, the Obama presidency gave us the results of the recent election. The rise of the Tea Party, the rise of fake news, Democrat voter apathy, the rise of Trump...all at least in part a reaction to having Obama in the white house.
The Republicans are sitting pretty right now, but they've never been more vulnerable. Their model for winning is not sustainable in an America that grows more diverse every year, and with Trump, they're stuck with that model. They've set the stage for a Democrat backlash against Trump as intense as the Republican one against Obama. And frankly, I see a lot of Trump voters defecting after a year or two of seeing him in action.
If Democrats can't take back the Senate in 2018 under these conditions, they'll have no one but themselves to blame, it's theirs if they want it bad enough. All they have to do is freaking show up to vote. In 2020 they could be in a better position than they would have been if Clinton had won. There will be shit to clean up, but that's when Democrats win, when the crap has piled up so high the majority realizes they need someone else to clean it out.
The main thing Trump could do to win a 2nd Term is start a war; Americans are reluctant to shift commanders-in-chief in the middle of a war. That would leave a bigger mess to clean up in 2024, but would guarantee a Democrat majority. Not much of a bright side in the short term; but the Republicans will never be able to win the white house again the same way Trump got in. Trump was an act of desperation for a party that's no longer truly viable in its present form.
I'm not anti-Christian. I'm anti-stupid.
