Syria: Chemical weapons kill hundreds in Ibrin

[Something completely different]

Fuck.... I would have never thought of Assad to be crazy enought to go that far.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23777201

http://www.spiegel.de/international/worl...17848.html

[Minimalist]

So much less humane than dropping napalm on them.

WTF is that sarcasm smilie when I need it?

[Jackalope]

I wouldn't put it past Assad to do this.

However, I also wouldn't put it past the rebels to do it, and blame Assad - or even stage the event, and blame Assad.

It will certainly be a story to watch - and tragic if true.

[Anomalocaris]

Fuck.... I would have never thought of Assad to be crazy enought to go that far.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23777201

http://www.spiegel.de/international/worl...17848.html

If I were Assad, what would I be thinking at this moment?

I wouldn't think I need to be very crazy to gas my opponentss because I know it has already dawned on the liberal democracies how much more trouble they would be in if my enemies - many of whom would likely convert the skills acquired fighting me into blowing up trains in western capitals - win, then if I - who is murderous but more or less against those who would blow up trains in western capitals - win.

I also know Russia has stared down Saudi Arabia's infamous intelligence chief Prince Bandar - who with CIA achestrated western backed insurgency against the Soviets in Afghanistan - when Bandar came to Moscow three weeks ago to cojole and threaten Russia and demand Russian abandoment of Assad. I know Putin contemptiously rejected Saudi Arabia's attempt to bribe Russian arms industry with 11 billion dollars of new orders to back away from supporting me. I also know Russia has also stared down Turkey and threatened to whip up anti-Turkish sentiments in North eastern border of Turkey if Turkey was to continue to aid and abet western efforts to overthrow me. I also know Putin pointedly reminded Turkish prime minister Edogan that the West and Israel was willing to acqueice to the failed effort to overthrow him in a silent palace coupe a couple of month ago. So Russia is in it with me all the way, has hobbled one of my neighbors who had been against me, and had sent the main financier against me scurrying back to Riyadh.

So I would be pretty certain the turning point has already been reached and the wind is behind my back, and I should now do whatever it takes to reconqueror the country.

Let's face it, supporting Arab spring has been a colosal blunder on the part of the west.

[Something completely different]

I disagree, Assad has pritty much lost his rule, the question remaining is who will be his succesor.
He will certainly not be able to regain the rest of the country and even if he regains half, people in possitions of power will start questioning his capability to keep the country stable.

It is easyly possible that Assad is not even responsible for this recent attack and that his generals have started to act on their own behalf.

[Anomalocaris]

I disagree, Assad has pritty much lost his rule, the question remaining is who will be his succesor.
He will certainly not be able to regain the rest of the country and even if he regains half, people in possitions of power will start questioning his capability to keep the country stable.

It is easyly possible that Assad is not even responsible for this recent attack and that his generals have started to act on their own behalf.

I think Assad has not lost, and at this point can be reasonably be assured of control over enough of the country in the medium term to make Russian interests in Eastern Mediterranean safe. It is not to say he may not be offered some kind of very comfortable retirement in the near future, but certainly his regime will survive, and Arab spring in his country won't.

As America become less dependent on energy import, its interests in the middle east will decline. Coupled with its increasing focus on containing China's ability to challenge its preeminance in East Asia, America's willingness and indeed capacity to check Russia influence western Asia is likely in long term declining.

China and Russia interests in west Asia probably coincide. Indeed China will probably do what it can to strengthen Russian power in Western Asia just to divert American interest away from East Asia.

No European power seem to have the capacity, the willingness, or the steadiness and perseverence to thwart Russia.

So the ability of Putin to effectively shape the outcome of Syrian civil war (probably with tacit collusion from Israel) suggests Russia is reemerging as the long term dominant outside influence in western Asia.