Is Kirk Cousins worth $30 million a year?

[Angrboda]

Kirk Cousins is expected to reach free agency later this month, and it is expected that there is going to be a strong bidding war for his contract, with likely teams being the Broncos, Vikings, and Jets.  His per year salary is expected to run in the $30 million a year range.  There is no doubt that Kirk Cousins had impressive basic statistics the past three years.  Yet even with that, he failed to lead the Washington Redskins to a winning season in 2017, despite having a reasonably good supporting cast.  They finished the season with 7 wins and 9 losses.  Perhaps one can blame that on their defense, yet Cousins never seemed to make the crucial plays when it counted.  And his more advanced statistics at places like Pro Football Focus paint a less optimistic picture.  In particular, when he is put under pressure, his stats drop precipitously.  Still, there are optimistic projections that if he were to drop into an already complete team like the Vikings, he could take them to the Super Bowl.  So the question is, is Kirk Cousins worth the $30 million dollar a year hit to a teams salary cap?  I have my doubts.  Speaking specifically to the possibility of him coming to the Vikings, I feel that salary cap space could be better put toward other uses.  What do you think?

Any way you slice his stats, Cousins comes out shining.

[but....]

But Pro Football Focus’ grades and stats are more of a mixed bag…

Pro Football Focus grades don’t love Cousins, but they still like him: Cousins’ ranked 14th  in the NFL in 2015, 9th in 2016, and 20th in 2017, for an average PFF grade of 82.2, which would have ranked 15th in the NFL in 2017, between Matt Stafford and Jameis Winston.

Cousins’ “Big-Time Throw” Percentage (the percentage of very positively-graded throws) of 4.1% ranked only 24th in the NFL in 2017, while his turnover-worthy throw percentage of 3.6% ranked 22nd in 2017.  One way to interpret that is that he was somewhat conservative as a passer this year, but nevertheless did not take care of the ball particularly well.  Cousins has been more aggressive in the past, however, as his career Big-Time Throw Percentage of 4.7% would have ranked about 15th in 2017.

Cousins statistically does very well when throwing from a clean pocket—his passer rating when kept clean was 106.5 in 2017 (ranked 8th) and 107.2 in 2016 (which also ranked 8th).  However, Cousins struggles more than the average quarterback under pressure, as his passer rating drops 40 points when pressured—one of the ten biggest drops in the league.

In fact, Cousins led the entire NFL in interceptions under pressure (tied with Derek Carr and DeShone Kizer).  That, combined with his league-leading fumbles, may explain why his PFF grades don’t align with his box score stats.

…As are his statistical splits.

As good as Cousins box score stats are, they are much less impressive when you look at crucial quarterback situations like third down or crunch time.

Cousins’ 86.5 passer rating on third downs in 2017 is tied with Mike Glennon for 14th best in the NFL.  Washington’s 32.7% 1st-down percentage on third downs when passing ranked 8th worst in the NFL in 2017.

His 83.2 passer rating in crunch time (which I’m defining as the last five minutes of any game where the score is within 10 points) ranked 13th in the NFL in 2017.  (If you’d like to read more, Matthew Coller at 1500ESPN has a great article here.)

The $150 million question: Is Kirk Cousins worth it?

[Minimalist]

Should you invest that much in one player who may be done in when a 4th stringer making minimum wage off the taxi squad at offensive tackle falls on his face on pass coverage and give a defender a clean shot on the $30 million dollar man's knees?

[henryp]

Nobody wants to give Cousins 30million. But the alternative is trying to win with Keenum, Bortles, McCown, etc...

It's a lose-lose situation for the teams trying to land him.

[Angrboda]

He's looking better already.