Anthropogenic Climate Change

[theVOID]

So we all agree (I should hope) that average global temperatures are rising, but how many of you think it's due to increases in carbon gasses blocking long wave radiation from leaving the atmosphere and subsequently heating the earth?

I do.

You lot?

[Violet]

I also do, but I do not think it is solely cause by such. Methane has quite the role in this.

[theVOID]

There are plenty of contributing factors to climate, however none of them show any significant correlation with rising average temperatures at this time other than carbon gasses - the role of methane is rather marginal too.

[DiRNiS]

Climate change is real, and obvious. It's going to happen 100%, no matter what. No matter if humans were wiped out of existence tomorrow, it's going to happen.

The Earth's climate comes in cycles. At the moment, we're in a period of natural warming. Whether or not man is influencing it whether it be by a tiny bit or a large amount or none at all, IS STILL DISPUTED. And that's the crux of it. Nobody really knows how much is natural climate change, and how much is anthropogenic.

[theVOID]

We know climate change is real, that is why the question is about Anthropogenic climate change.

You can measure pretty much all of the potential influences on global climate, solar activity, weather patterns, glacial melting, volcanic activity, the earth's eccentricity, cloud formations, the wavelength refracted back by the ground and oceans, the amount of infrared radiation absorbed or refracted by the atmosphere etc and after considering them all over time you see a long term trend that is by far more closely correlated with increased global Co2 emissions than anything else, a trend that sees the cycles peak higher and drop lesser than previously, this is precisely why it's a statistically significant effect, as in a 95% probability of their measurements being accurate given the sum of the data.

There are very few climate scientists left that doubt the role of c02 emissions in climate change, those that do have some good arguments but even then the main ones, related to solar activity and cloud formation, have been fairly well refuted - These people are not the ones who kick up the fuss about it either, some of the most prominent climatologists skeptical of anthropogenic climate change are constantly issuing statements because of biased and agenda driven media sources that misuse their studies.

[Welsh cake]

I think any Meteorologist who cares about facts, not stats, would appreciate that the Sun, not us, is what ultimately dictates our tiny little planet's weather.



Oh well since we know the government's preference is to fund any support of global warming theory let's continue to ignore the giant Elephant in the room a little longer shall we?

[Anomalocaris]

I think any Meteorologist who cares about facts, not stats, would appreciate that the Sun, not us, is what ultimately dictates our tiny little planet's weather.



Oh well since we know the government's preference is to fund any support of global warming theory let's continue to ignore the giant Elephant in the room a little longer shall we?

The sun maybe the ultimate overlord of our weather, but as any peasant in a feudal system knows, it is usually not the supreme overlord but your immediate landlord who is most responsible for making your life miserable.

[theVOID]

I think any Meteorologist who cares about facts, not stats, would appreciate that the Sun, not us, is what ultimately dictates our tiny little planet's weather.

Oh well since we know the government's preference is to fund any support of global warming theory let's continue to ignore the giant Elephant in the room a little longer shall we?

Oh wow, thanks for pointing that out Welsh Cake, I guess the vast majority of climate scientists completely forgot about that /sarcasm

The body of evidence for anthropogenic climate change takes into account all of our best data on solar activity, the earth's eccentricities, cloud cover, aerosols in the atmosphere reflecting back short wavelength radiation into space, volcanic activity, the surface of the earth and the amount of long wave radiation that it reflects into the atmosphere that is blocked by carbon gasses, weather patterns, glacial conditions and there is STILL an otherwise unaccounted for increase in average global temperatures for which the best correlation we have is by far the steady increase of carbon gasses in the atmosphere.

But of course if you had any actual familiarity with the case for anthropogenic climate change you would have already known that.

NOBODY denies that solar activity is the major contributing factor in the earth's climate, there is still an increase in average temperatures that cannot be accounted for by the alternative hypotheses, such as solar activity and cloud cover (which was found to have a negative correlation).

But wait, it's CLEARLY a government conspiracy, right?

[Welsh cake]

Oh wow, thanks for pointing that out Welsh Cake, I guess the vast majority of climate scientists completely forgot about that /sarcasm

You're always welcome VOID. ^^ May I also point out your argumentum ad populum and that scientific consensus is not by itself a scientific argument while I'm at it?

The body of evidence for anthropogenic climate change takes into account all of our best data on solar activity, the earth's eccentricities, cloud cover, aerosols in the atmosphere reflecting back short wavelength radiation into space, volcanic activity, the surface of the earth and the amount of long wave radiation that it reflects into the atmosphere that is blocked by carbon gasses, weather patterns, glacial conditions and there is STILL an otherwise unaccounted for increase in average global temperatures for which the best correlation we have is by far the steady increase of carbon gasses in the atmosphere.

Inadequate - Earth is 4.54 billion years, we've only had instrumental temperature recording since 1880, that's not enough sufficient evidence to support the hypothesis, maybe you have different standards of evidence, but I don't find that to be particularly convincing.

But of course if you had any actual familiarity with the case for anthropogenic climate change you would have already known that.
...
But wait, it's CLEARLY a government conspiracy, right?

Except I'm not a conspiracist. Global warming provided the excuse needed for reducing the UK's dependence on coal by replacing it with nuclear power. If you kindly stop being presumptuous for just a minute a brief search into modern history and politics will reveal that bitch Margaret Thatcher and what her party did to the coal industry. Where I live, the south Wales valleys is a quite literally a "dump" because of her. We live on handouts from the European Union for fucks sake.

[lilphil1989]

I think any Meteorologist who cares about facts, not stats, would appreciate that the Sun, not us, is what ultimately dictates our tiny little planet's weather.

In science, statistics ARE facts, or at least as close to them as you will ever get.

As for the sun dictating weather, sure the sun dictates the energy flux the earth receives, but it has no control whatsoever over the earth's energy output.
As a body with non-zero temperature, the earth emits blackbody radiation. It so happens that carbon dioxide molecules have vibrational modes whose energies lie in the region of the peak of the earth's blackbody spectrum.
These modes are excited by absorption of photons with frequencies corresponding to the mode energies. These are then reradiated isotropically. Those radiated back towards the earth contribute to heating it.
You put more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, you increase the "reflection", thereby increasing the heating effect.

When it comes to the basic science of AGW, there's really nothing you can argue against.

As DiRNiS points out, it can be difficult to tell how much of the present warming phase is due to AGW and how much would have happened anyway.
But as we know that atmospheric carbon dioxide has such an effect, its seems pragmatic to try to minimize the human contribution.