Russia and Ukraine

[Mr Greene]

[Belacqua]

It's a dumb idea because you can't force anyone to surrender until they themselves feel the costs outweigh the benefits. 

Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on aid from the US and Europe. Trump has made it clear that he doesn't intend to continue that forever, and Europe doesn't have the capacity to equip a long war. Though Zelensky may not choose to surrender, he may simply have to give up.

Ukrainians are largely against the current "peace plan", in my opinion because they feel it's one cooked up between DC and Moscow and then being foisted upon them.

How do you know what Ukrainians think? There are a lot of them still alive, and no doubt their opinions vary. Remember that many of them speak Russian as a native language and feel closer culturally to Russia than to Kiev. (Zelensky's career, back when he was prancing around on TV in high heels, was largely conducted in Russian.)

There are also a large number of widows and orphans now, and it is very possible that they would be happy to have peace, no matter who "cooked up" the plan. Of course there are always the proud macho men who would rather have their entire army killed rather than compromise and lose territory. But you know most people just want a quiet life. 

According to Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian military commander and politician currently serving as a People's Deputy of Ukraine, over 121,000 men between the ages of 18 and 22 have fled Ukraine since August. That's when Zelensky lifted the ban on people of that age leaving the country. And of course if that many have fled, there are almost certainly many more who would go if they had the cash or a safe place to go to. So it looks as though a very large percentage of soon-to-be military age men are not interested in continuing to die for their country's borders. It seems likely to me that they would also welcome a peace plan. There are now several hundred thousand Ukrainian men living abroad, and I'm sure many of them would eventually like to go home again, but they won't return as long as there's a good chance they'll be Shanghaied off the street and forced to go and get killed by a drone. 

Of course it's difficult to know what the majority of Ukrainians think about this. We would know if Ukraine had a free and fair election, but former president Zelensky has refused to call for elections, despite the fact that his term expired months ago. There is no provision in the Ukrainian constitution for a president who simply wants to hold on to power. He has banned opposition parties and shut down any media outlet that was critical of his government. So Ukrainians have no independent voice now. Zelensky is giving televised pep-talks filmed in front of a green screen to try and persuade Ukrainians to keep fighting. But he's looking a little desperate. 

It's likely that Zelensky and his European masters are afraid that if elections were held he would lose. Remember he ran on a platform promising peace, and that's what people voted for. So if someone ran against him, saying that he was willing to negotiate a peace settlement, there's a good chance that the peace candidate would get widespread support. But those who want the war to continue won't risk that. This is one of the reasons Putin is hesitant to negotiate a deal -- the Ukrainians he'd be negotiating with have no constitutional authority. 

But Zelensky's days are probably numbered. NABU, the Ukrainian anti-corruption agency, is trained by Americans and there is strong US influence in its ranks. The fact that they have got rid of Andriy Yermak –  Zelensky’s fixer, enforcer, gatekeeper, and indispensable ally -- looks like more than cleaning house. (Everybody knows that Ukraine has been among the most corrupt countries in the world for years.) It looks like a slap at Zelensky's power, and a warning that if the US wants him out there are ways they can manage that. Three of his top government officials have already fled to asylum in Israel. (Rats, sinking ship.) Funny they would go to Israel, that beacon of justice and fair play.

Anyway, borders aren't made by God, and Ukraine's have been particularly fluid over the years. The lines that Zelensky is sending people to die for were established in 1991. A large part of Eastern Ukraine is already known in the vernacular as Novorussia. And we know that using force to change borders is a possibility -- NATO did it in Kosovo.  

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:...orders.svg

So this fantasy that Zelensky's government is going to win back all the lost territory by military means is just ridiculous. At this point the choices are to cut their losses and make a deal, or to lose a lot more land -- and a lot more people. It would be nice if the people of Ukraine had a voice in this, but no one is giving them that.

[Fake Messiah]

So this fantasy that Zelensky's government is going to win back all the lost territory by military means is just ridiculous. At this point the choices are to cut their losses and make a deal, or to lose a lot more land -- and a lot more people.

There is plenty of chance, and you can see it in Russian propagators like you on internet, who are trying desperately to discredit Zelensky supposedly because they care about the Ukrainians. You even portray Putin as someone who cares about Ukrainians although he is killing them.

Indeed, Ukrainians have started to inflict serious damage on the Russian infrastructure that Putin is shitting himself.

The other thing is that Ukrainians have already tried giving Putin land, but he just wants more, and he wants the whole Ukraine. So don't blame Zelensky or Ukraine for not being able to make a deal with a guy with whom no one can make a deal. Putin has already promised not to change the russian constitution, not to stay in power after 2008, not to annex Ukraine's Crimea, not to attack Ukraine in 2014, not to attack Ukraine in 2022, and etc. So one would have to be insane or a liar to claim that his next promise will be kept. So if Russia wants to make a deal and be taken seriously, they should get rid of Putin first.

Not to mention that Ukrainians already tried living under the Russian rule but the Russians kept starving them, so they are not crazy enough to repeat it. Google "Holodomor famine"

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on aid from the US and Europe. Trump has made it clear that he doesn't intend to continue that forever, and Europe doesn't have the capacity to equip a long war. Though Zelensky may not choose to surrender, he may simply have to give up.

It's almost as if you've never heard of insurgencies. What Putin -- and you -- don't seem to understand is that even if Russia "wins" militarily on the field, they are going to have to engage an insurgency that hates Russia, is technologically adept, and has a northwestern border for surreptitious resupply that Russia won't be able to interdict easily ... especially given their demonstrated ineptitude.

How do you know what Ukrainians think? There are a lot of them still alive, and no doubt their opinions vary.

It's called reading and listening. If you read and listened to more than Moscow's shills, you'd see that I'm being fair. Of course opinions vary, but my understanding is that a solid majority of Ukrainian civilians, and a large majority of Ukrainian armed forces, are against [f]Trump's peace plan[/i] Putin's diktat.

Remember that many of them speak Russian as a native language and feel closer culturally to Russia than to Kiev. (Zelensky's career, back when he was prancing around on TV in high heels, was largely conducted in Russian.)

Quantify "many".

There are also a large number of widows and orphans now, and it is very possible that they would be happy to have peace, no matter who "cooked up" the plan.

Oh, sure, it's "possible". Hidden in your weasel-word here is the admission that you do not know, even as you demand I show how I know.

Of course there are always the proud macho men who would rather have their entire army killed rather than compromise and lose territory. But you know most people just want a quiet life. 

Let me get this straight, wanting to live life your own way is now the purview of "macho men" and no one else?

As for killing the entire Ukrainian Army, I doubt the Russians could manage such a feat. Their conscript army is laughably trained and so poorly equipped that they're running out of 60-tanks to refurbish. Russia fights on at China's sufferance.

According to Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian military commander and politician currently serving as a People's Deputy of Ukraine, over 121,000 men between the ages of 18 and 22 have fled Ukraine since August. That's when Zelensky lifted the ban on people of that age leaving the country. And of course if that many have fled, there are almost certainly many more who would go if they had the cash or a safe place to go to.

It's plain logic is not your strong suit, given such an idiotic non-sequitur. It could equally be that the majority in favor of fleeing have already done so and that the remainder are devoted to fighting to the bitter end.

So it looks as though a very large percentage of soon-to-be military age men are not interested in continuing to die for their country's borders. It seems likely to me that they would also welcome a peace plan.

Actually, it looks as though this is opinion masquerading as "fact".

There are now several hundred thousand Ukrainian men living abroad, and I'm sure many of them would eventually like to go home again, but they won't return as long as there's a good chance they'll be Shanghaied off the street and forced to go and get killed by a drone. 

And if they don't want to defend Ukraine, that's fine, let them stay in their refuge. What they have to do with domestic Ukrainian opinion, which since you've apparently forgotten is what I was talking about, needs to be shown.

Of course it's difficult to know what the majority of Ukrainians think about this. We would know if Ukraine had a free and fair election, but former president Zelensky has refused to call for elections, despite the fact that his term expired months ago. There is no provision in the Ukrainian constitution for a president who simply wants to hold on to power.

Here you go parroting Putin talking points again. An honest commentator would know, and admit, that the Ukrainian constitution specifically forbids elections during a war.

He has banned opposition parties and shut down any media outlet that was critical of his government. So Ukrainians have no independent voice now. Zelensky is giving televised pep-talks filmed in front of a green screen to try and persuade Ukrainians to keep fighting. But he's looking a little desperate. 

All media suffers once bullets start flying. Somehow this is only a problem when it happens in Ukraine.

It's likely that Zelensky and his European masters are afraid that if elections were held he would lose. Remember he ran on a platform promising peace, and that's what people voted for. So if someone ran against him, saying that he was willing to negotiate a peace settlement, there's a good chance that the peace candidate would get widespread support. But those who want the war to continue won't risk that. This is one of the reasons Putin is hesitant to negotiate a deal -- the Ukrainians he'd be negotiating with have no constitutional authority. 

"If" elections were held is irrelevant. Until Russia ceases its war of aggression, any such election would be illegal, and admit it -- if he won such an illegal election, Putin fanbois such as yourself would be screaming to high heaven about Zelenskyy's illegitimacy. Only in that case you'd (finally!) be right.

But Zelensky's days are probably numbered. NABU, the Ukrainian anti-corruption agency, is trained by Americans and there is strong US influence in its ranks. The fact that they have got rid of Andriy Yermak –  Zelensky’s fixer, enforcer, gatekeeper, and indispensable ally -- looks like more than cleaning house. (Everybody knows that Ukraine has been among the most corrupt countries in the world for years.) It looks like a slap at Zelensky's power, and a warning that if the US wants him out there are ways they can manage that. Three of his top government officials have already fled to asylum in Israel. (Rats, sinking ship.) Funny they would go to Israel, that beacon of justice and fair play.

I agree that the corruption investigation has to go on. I like that it seems to be following the evidence without regard to rank or title. If it goes up to Z himself, get rid of him. But if corrupt leaders were a valid reason to be invaded, every nation on earth would be at risk.

Anyway, borders aren't made by God, and Ukraine's have been particularly fluid over the years. The lines that Zelensky is sending people to die for were established in 1991. A large part of Eastern Ukraine is already known in the vernacular as Novorussia. And we know that using force to change borders is a possibility -- NATO did it in Kosovo.  

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:...orders.svg

Don't look now, but you've just supported the idea that "might makes right". Have you always been amoral? You point to NATO's actions as if I supported them. I didn't.

So this fantasy that Zelensky's government is going to win back all the lost territory by military means is just ridiculous. At this point the choices are to cut their losses and make a deal, or to lose a lot more land -- and a lot more people. It would be nice if the people of Ukraine had a voice in this, but no one is giving them that.

... or they can fight until the Russians tire of throwing away blood and treasure, or, more likely, someone in Moscow realizes that the harm Russia is doing to itself is irreparable.

[Paleophyte]

There are also a large number of widows and orphans now, and it is very possible that they would be happy to have peace, no matter who "cooked up" the plan.

Is there a better comedy act than Republicans pretending to give a shit about orphans and widows in another country while handing them over to the dictator who started the war and famously stole Ukrainian children? Next time a Christian™ starts babbling about moral relativity, I'm pointing them at this thread and rubbing their nose in the mess that Bel left on the carpet.

[Deesse23]

So this fantasy that Zelensky's government is going to win back all the lost territory by military means is just ridiculous. At this point the choices are to cut their losses and make a deal, or to lose a lot more land -- and a lot more people.

Ukraine has won back 50% of territory occupied by Russia during the ´22 invasion. Since then Russia has gained some single-digit percentage of Ukrainian Territory in 3 years.
Your fantasy that Putins government is going to win back all the lost territory by military means is just ridiculous. At this point Putins choices are to cut his losses and make a deal, or to lose a lot more people for...... almost nothing.

It's likely that Zelensky and his European masters are afraid that if elections were held he would lose.

Article 83 of the constitution of Ukraine (June 1996)

In the event that the term of authority of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine expires while martial law or a state of emergency is in effect, its authority is extended until the day of the first meeting of the first session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine , elected after the cancellation of martial law or of the state of emergency.

You are a liar, paid by Russia, everbody knows it, and you know everybody knows it, yet you keep on lying. Thats how bancrupt and desperate your country currently is.

All that is needed to prove you are right is Russia to stop its invasion. Without martial law in Ukraine elections can be held, Zelensky will lose, and peace and sunshine everywhere. Are you going to ask for Russia to stop its invasion? Of course you wont, you russian piece of shit.

[Deesse23]

But Zelensky's days are probably numbered. NABU, the Ukrainian anti-corruption agency, is trained by Americans and there is strong US influence in its ranks. The fact that they have got rid of Andriy Yermak –  Zelensky’s fixer, enforcer, gatekeeper, and indispensable ally -- looks like more than cleaning house. (Everybody knows that Ukraine has been among the most corrupt countries in the world for years.) It looks like a slap at Zelensky's power, and a warning that if the US wants him out there are ways they can manage that. Three of his top government officials have already fled to asylum in Israel. (Rats, sinking ship.) Funny they would go to Israel, that beacon of justice and fair play.

Corruption index ranking of Ukraine and Russia, according to Transparency International (score/rank):
Ukraine: 33/116
Russia : 28/137

Anyway, borders aren't made by God, and Ukraine's have been particularly fluid over the years.

Its borders are fluid particularly in the past ten years because it got invaded by Russia, twice.


Stop lying, you are just embarrassing yourself

[Thumpalumpacus]

But Zelensky's days are probably numbered. NABU, the Ukrainian anti-corruption agency, is trained by Americans and there is strong US influence in its ranks. The fact that they have got rid of Andriy Yermak –  Zelensky’s fixer, enforcer, gatekeeper, and indispensable ally -- looks like more than cleaning house. (Everybody knows that Ukraine has been among the most corrupt countries in the world for years.) It looks like a slap at Zelensky's power, and a warning that if the US wants him out there are ways they can manage that. Three of his top government officials have already fled to asylum in Israel. (Rats, sinking ship.) Funny they would go to Israel, that beacon of justice and fair play.

Corruption index ranking of Ukraine and Russia, according to Transparency International (score/rank):
Ukraine: 33/116
Russia : 28/137

Anyway, borders aren't made by God, and Ukraine's have been particularly fluid over the years.

Its borders are fluid particularly in the past ten years because it got invaded by Russia, twice.


Stop lying, you are just embarrassing yourself

Bel's bunghole must be mighty sore from Putin's hand being stuffed in it so deeply. I wonder what life is like as a puppet ...

[Deesse23]

Bel's bunghole must be mighty sore from Putin's hand being stuffed in it so deeply. I wonder what life is like as a puppet ...

He is such a bad liar, i am wondering if embarrassment is something people do feel in the part of Russia he is living in

Mentioning corruption in Ukraine, while russia is worse, and got even worse during the war, that is rich. In fact, corruption in Ukraine is obviously investigated. How about corruption in Putins perimeter (remember: Russia is way more corrupt than Ukraine!). Why is there no corruption in Russia unmasked...oh, wait....
Claiming that Zelensky is "sending people to die", while Putin is sending way more people to die for less gain and an unjust cause, thats rich.
Claiming that Urkaine should surrender, while Russia has not managed to completely occupy a single fucking oblast, while its troops are crawling forward at (literally!) snail speed, with horrible losses, thats rich.
Ukraine cant keep fighting without support from its allies? Winston fucking Churchill and Josef Stalin would like to have a word with the amoral coward Bel is.

Bel is a liar, a terrible one, but he doesnt care, because he is a piece of shit. Even more so since he isnt embarrassed by his terrible performance in the slightest.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ukraine cant keep fighting without support from its allies?

It's almost as if he hasn't read any history. Both America and the USSR got thrown out of Afghanistan by tribesmen with minimal, and covert, outside support. Such a situation would certainly obtain given that the border with Poland (a state strongly hostile to Russia) is dense swamp. He's apparently never heard of the Ho Chi Minh trail, either.

Aside from that, Ukraine now has a large body of trained warriors. Those willing to continue their resistance will be very hard to pry out of the Pripet or the Carpathian foothills in the west.

In short, Ukraine might lose the field war, but Russia will almost certainly lose the overall war. Countering insurgencies not only requires large outlays of money, but also a willingness to work with the local population. The obvious corollary is that if the local population won't work with you, your counterinsurgency is doomed.

Peace at gunpoint is rarely a successful strategy.