(Yesterday at 1:54 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: It's a dumb idea because you can't force anyone to surrender until they themselves feel the costs outweigh the benefits.
Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on aid from the US and Europe. Trump has made it clear that he doesn't intend to continue that forever, and Europe doesn't have the capacity to equip a long war. Though Zelensky may not choose to surrender, he may simply have to give up.
Quote:Ukrainians are largely against the current "peace plan", in my opinion because they feel it's one cooked up between DC and Moscow and then being foisted upon them.
How do you know what Ukrainians think? There are a lot of them still alive, and no doubt their opinions vary. Remember that many of them speak Russian as a native language and feel closer culturally to Russia than to Kiev. (Zelensky's career, back when he was prancing around on TV in high heels, was largely conducted in Russian.)
There are also a large number of widows and orphans now, and it is very possible that they would be happy to have peace, no matter who "cooked up" the plan. Of course there are always the proud macho men who would rather have their entire army killed rather than compromise and lose territory. But you know most people just want a quiet life.
According to Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian military commander and politician currently serving as a People's Deputy of Ukraine, over 121,000 men between the ages of 18 and 22 have fled Ukraine since August. That's when Zelensky lifted the ban on people of that age leaving the country. And of course if that many have fled, there are almost certainly many more who would go if they had the cash or a safe place to go to. So it looks as though a very large percentage of soon-to-be military age men are not interested in continuing to die for their country's borders. It seems likely to me that they would also welcome a peace plan. There are now several hundred thousand Ukrainian men living abroad, and I'm sure many of them would eventually like to go home again, but they won't return as long as there's a good chance they'll be Shanghaied off the street and forced to go and get killed by a drone.
Of course it's difficult to know what the majority of Ukrainians think about this. We would know if Ukraine had a free and fair election, but former president Zelensky has refused to call for elections, despite the fact that his term expired months ago. There is no provision in the Ukrainian constitution for a president who simply wants to hold on to power. He has banned opposition parties and shut down any media outlet that was critical of his government. So Ukrainians have no independent voice now. Zelensky is giving televised pep-talks filmed in front of a green screen to try and persuade Ukrainians to keep fighting. But he's looking a little desperate.
It's likely that Zelensky and his European masters are afraid that if elections were held he would lose. Remember he ran on a platform promising peace, and that's what people voted for. So if someone ran against him, saying that he was willing to negotiate a peace settlement, there's a good chance that the peace candidate would get widespread support. But those who want the war to continue won't risk that. This is one of the reasons Putin is hesitant to negotiate a deal -- the Ukrainians he'd be negotiating with have no constitutional authority.
But Zelensky's days are probably numbered. NABU, the Ukrainian anti-corruption agency, is trained by Americans and there is strong US influence in its ranks. The fact that they have got rid of Andriy Yermak – Zelensky’s fixer, enforcer, gatekeeper, and indispensable ally -- looks like more than cleaning house. (Everybody knows that Ukraine has been among the most corrupt countries in the world for years.) It looks like a slap at Zelensky's power, and a warning that if the US wants him out there are ways they can manage that. Three of his top government officials have already fled to asylum in Israel. (Rats, sinking ship.) Funny they would go to Israel, that beacon of justice and fair play.
Anyway, borders aren't made by God, and Ukraine's have been particularly fluid over the years. The lines that Zelensky is sending people to die for were established in 1991. A large part of Eastern Ukraine is already known in the vernacular as Novorussia. And we know that using force to change borders is a possibility -- NATO did it in Kosovo.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:...orders.svg
So this fantasy that Zelensky's government is going to win back all the lost territory by military means is just ridiculous. At this point the choices are to cut their losses and make a deal, or to lose a lot more land -- and a lot more people. It would be nice if the people of Ukraine had a voice in this, but no one is giving them that.
