RE: Newcomb's Paradox
January 28, 2023 at 9:50 pm
(This post was last modified: January 28, 2023 at 9:51 pm by GrandizerII.)
(January 28, 2023 at 3:16 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: I misread the OP - choosing Box A only is not an option. In that case, choosing both boxes is a marginally better option, as you’re guaranteed at least $1000. Choosing Box B only gives you a 50% chance of walking away with bupkis.
Boru
I agree that, per the prediction the Predictor makes, two-boxing always yields the better outcome. However, how I see it is like this:
1. If I choose Box B only, there is an incredibly high chance of walking away with $1000000 since the Predictor would've most probably predicted I would do so.
2. If I two-box instead, there is an incredibly high chance of only getting $1000 since the Predictor would've most probably predicted I would do so, and therefore Box B would contain nothing.
Therefore, it seems like one-boxing is the way to go. Sure, two-boxing instead of one-boxing would net me $1001000 if the Predictor predicts wrongly that I would one-box, but it seems to me like there is an incredibly low chance of that happening.
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The crazy thing about this just now is that while I'm feeling confident about my answer here (and so have posted this), I'm also now in two minds about this. I feel like I contradicted myself, soo let me think about this more to make sure I didn't.
