Note to everybody: Election in February, Election in February

[GUBU]

3) Fianna Fáil (proper pronunciation Fee-anna Fall; current pronunciation Fee-anna Fail; translation The Soldiers of Destiny [also one of the names for the army])

Nicknames: Soldiers of Destiny, the Parish Pump, the Galway Tent (a tent the party had the Galway races which became a side word for graft)

Constituencies: Small farmers, urban poor, rural poor, industrialists, anyone they could get to listen to them really

Current representation: 21 up from 19 (previous Ceann Comhairle not included in the 19)

History:
The second offshoot of the original Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil grew out of first of all Eamonn de Valera's refusal to bow to the wishes of the people and accept the 1921 Treaty, and second of all his realisation in 1926 that sitting outside the Dáil tent pissing in was getting him nowhere. He thus dropped his unbreakable pledge never to swear to the British Crown and took his party into the parliament. Won the election in 1932 and were the big dogs in the Dáil from then until 2011, when the economic crisis pulverised them. They are very like Fine Gael, except a lot cuter, and able to pull the wool over the eyes of many. Historically they have also skated very closely to the line in terms of morality and legality, though they've also had some very good leaders. And in Eamonn de Valera, they produced Ireland's only American head of state.

Policies:
Try to fool all of the people all of the time, most of the time suceed in fooling enough of the people enough of the time. Are vaguely left wing in rhetoric, though often enough mirror Fine Gael when it comes to actions. It is a rare Fianna Fáil leader who doesn't do well out of his time in government though.

Big Men:

Micheal "the Cork dauphin" Martin

Corkonian, with all the cockiness and sense of entitlement that entails. Is a member of the old guard, but has cleaned up his act since becoming leader after the last election, and seems to be genuinely working to clean out the Augean stables that is the party and renew it. Can be quite sensitive to challenge, and has caved in in the past to opposition he shouldn't have.

There really aren't any settled big beasts at the moment. Most of the main movers are too old(Eamonn O'Cuiv [of the de Valera clan]), too unsavoury (Niall Collins) or too thick (Willie O'Dea) to be currently thought of as big beasts. Will develop some during the election I have no doubt.

Prospects:
Will get back some of their vote. Currently at c19% in polls. However, the sensible money is that they won't regain preeminence for another five years yet. Expect circa 30 TDs in the next Dáil

4) Sinn Féin (pronunciation Shin Fein (rhymes with Vein); translation Ourselves, by Ourselves)


Nickname: the 'RA

Constituencies: Irredentist republicans, left-wingers.

Current representation: 14 (no change)

History:
Despite their name, the party is only tangentially related to the Independence movement of 1919-1921. They essentially came into being as the political wing of the Provisional IRA, the violent response to the attempted suppression of the civil rights movement in the North. For most of their existence they've been a Northern focused party, with very little representation in the South, outside of Donegal and Kerry. Since the mid noughties however the party has built a formidable machine in urban areas and has steadily increased its representation at both local and national levels. They are now probably 50/50 split between the Republic and the North.

Policies:
Left wing on provision of services, probably don't have the taxation policies to support these policies. Can be conservative socially, as they do have a catholic background. They are the biggest left centre party around and will look to consolidate the same.

Big Men and Woman:
Gerry "Grizzly" Adams

The party's main man since its foundation. May have been a PIRA big cheese. Lead the party into the Good Friday Agreement and was strongly pro-peace movement after that. Has skeletons in the closet, undoubtedly, but has managed to avoid any big scandal so far. Is getting on, so may not last as leader after the election.

Mary Lou McDonald

For a long time I thought she was an idiot (three years ago I'd have given her nickname as Jade Goody), but she has matured over the past few years, has developed a strong persona in committee work and is now heir apparent. She may become our first female Taoiseach if Sinn Féin can drop their IRA stigma.

Pearse Doherty

Another young go getter in the party, and probably the best brains in the group. Is the current financial spokesperson, and is capable of landing a few punches. The party is very disciplined, so if he harbours ambitions of leadership will have to wait to see if Mary Lou shoots herself in the foot.

Prospects:
Will continue to grow. Currently neck and neck with Fianna Fáil, so expect around thirty seats for them too.

I'll write up on the smaller parties and give a summation of the independents tomorrow (and there are a lot of independents running). And after that I'll give possible make ups of the next government, as I see it.