RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 8, 2016 at 8:16 pm
(This post was last modified: March 8, 2016 at 8:23 pm by Excited Penguin.)
Your problem is, it seems to me, that you're taking the math for granted despite the fact that you can't properly defend its use in this case. That's both dogmatic and unreasonable. I'm challenging the notion of using probability to deal with such a scenario and you didn't come up with any good reason why I should use it.
It seems to me that unless you study a multitude of such cases and switching because of probability turned out to be the right thing to do in most of them you couldn't possibly know that it would work. And even if that were the case and you knew it you still wouldn't be able to explain why it did. But the thing is you don't even have that kind of knowledge going in, in fact you have none. Therefore going with probability is illogical.
It seems to me that unless you study a multitude of such cases and switching because of probability turned out to be the right thing to do in most of them you couldn't possibly know that it would work. And even if that were the case and you knew it you still wouldn't be able to explain why it did. But the thing is you don't even have that kind of knowledge going in, in fact you have none. Therefore going with probability is illogical.
