(March 13, 2016 at 4:44 pm)IATIA Wrote:(March 13, 2016 at 4:31 pm)Mr.wizard Wrote: The probability of picking a 1 car from behind 3 doors is always 33%, it doesn't matter if 100 people play the game and guess right 100 times, each game is independent and every contestant starts with a 33% chance of picking right. Using the coin flip analogy, if you flip a coin 10 times and it lands on heads 9 times does that mean that the probability of flipping a coin and having it land on heads is 90%? Of course not its a 50/50 probability.
Yes, that is so on the first go around, but if one door is opened and you are given a second chance to choose it changes everything. See my post above. There is a 2/3 chance that the other door will contain the car on the second go around.
Yes I know I already argued the second choice is 2/3, I was responding to penguin saying that the probability of 1 out of 3 can not be a guaranteed 33%
