(March 21, 2016 at 6:44 am)AJW333 Wrote:(March 21, 2016 at 12:23 am)JuliaL Wrote: Here's another probability calculation.This represents a complete distortion of the mathematics. When fertilizing an egg cell with a sperm cell, it makes no difference which sperm fertilizes which egg. Any combination will do.
If average, your father produced on the order of two trillion (10^12) sperm in his lifetime exactly one of which produced you.
Your mother started with about two million eggs exactly one of which produced you.
These probabilities are multiplicative.
So the probability in one generation, of you being genetically roughly who you are is on the order of 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (ignoring mutations here.)
Going back one more generation: the probability of your father being genetically who he was is also ~1 in 10^18 same for your mother.
So the chances of them just having the right genetics for you to be exactly you is
1/10^18 times 1/10^18 times 1/10^18 or one chance in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
Go back more generations and the string of zeros gets longer quickly. You get to 1 in 10^50 pretty much right away.
Yes, it does matter in the sense that you are you, exactly as you are, which I think was Julia's point. But anyway...so where your Nobel Prize? Hell, where is your Templeton Prize? I mean since you, AJW333 of AF.org possess the scientific holy grail of proof of design. Oh wait...don't answer that yet...let me know when I can expect the deluge of conspiracy theories; I'd like to put my galoshes on.
Nay_Sayer: “Nothing is impossible if you dream big enough, or in this case, nothing is impossible if you use a barrel of KY Jelly and a miniature horse.”
Wiser words were never spoken.
Wiser words were never spoken.