(June 11, 2016 at 5:22 pm)YahwehIsTheWay Wrote:(June 11, 2016 at 5:16 pm)abaris Wrote: By serving yet another turd on a silver platter.
The big risk is the stay at home or vote third party crowd. The die hard Trumpians will move their asses to the voting booths. The moderates aren't as easily motivated.
The biggest risk are the Bernie or Bust crowd. As much as I understand being sick of voting for a conserva-Dem borderline-neo-con like Hillary, you only get two choices. We can try the primary process again in a later election. Meanwhile, at least Hillary can be pressured to move left. She's clearly not my first choice but I much prefer her to the unthinkable alternative.
Regarding the stay-at-home moderates vs the die-hard-Trump supporters, I simply don't think there are enough of either for Trump to win the election. Of course there are a number of people who have never voted before who will register just to vote for Trump. I think there's an even larger number of people who will, for the first time in their lives, not vote for the Republican candidate. And, regarding the undecided voters and moderates, I think it's very unlikely that anyone who's not already on board with Trump is going to be convinced to go with him. It's very possible Gary Johnson will snag closer to 20% of the national vote than 10%, but I don't think he's going to be pulling from Clinton any more than from Trump (the small-gov libertarian party is really more antithetical to the dems than the repubs).
As for the Bernie-or-bust crowd, I think they'll end up going almost 25% Trump, 25% Clinton, 25% Johnson, 25% stay home. They're what, maybe, 8% of the electorate? It appears more and more as though Bernie is going to get on board with a Clinton-Warren ticket, and join Obama and Biden in presenting a unified, slightly-lefter-than-before democratic front as an alternative to a fractured, incoherent Republican Party. Essentially, right now, national polls are pretty uniform at Clinton 40-44%, Trump 34-38%, other 15%-25%. I think it very very likely those numbers get better for Clinton after the dem convention rather than worse. I anticipate post-convention polls to run something like Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 12, undecided 6. Of course, you can win the presidency without winning the most votes, but I just don't think there are enough people out there who will end up voting Trump to get him to the, say, 42-44% he'd need to even have a shot in the electoral college (normally it would be 47-49% but in a third-party-heavy year no one's hitting an outright majority)
How will we know, when the morning comes, we are still human? - 2D
Don't worry, my friend. If this be the end, then so shall it be.
Don't worry, my friend. If this be the end, then so shall it be.