Being atheist in the Bible Belt

[The Grand Nudger]

It's already happening.

Maybe not.  There's a countervailing theory of religious economy that contradicts secularization.  To make a long story short, it conceptualizes believers as consumers of religious goods and services, and different sects, cults, denominations and religions as the brand or provider.  Essentially, arguing that religious plurality indicates an overabundance of religious consumers.   In that context,  peoples increasing willingness to check the "not affiliated" box might represent a shift in the religious economy, from major brands to niche marketers....but it should not be taken as an indicator of reduced religiosity so long as the number of religious providers continue to increase.  

In their model, the church of england, for example, accelerated the secularization of the UK.  Disaffected consumers were less likely or less able to turn to catholicism or islam (as examples) for their goods and services.  The state/cultural psuedo-monopoly on the market space left little room for competitors, and so, when the CoE faltered, religiosity in the UK faltered with it.  That's not happening here.  While the number of southern baptists goes down, the number of churches affiliated with the the southern baptist convention increases.  Someone is attending those services regardless of whether they checkmark the baptist box on a survey, paying for those goods.

Brand affiliation may be what;s changing, not peoples beliefs, or even the ability of those beliefs to be a factor in governance. At the same time, legitimate "nones" were still raised by people who were either formally affiliated or had personal leanings toward one denomination or another (even if only by default)......and while they may not believe in the gods of their fathers, they often do believe in their father's politics. I think it'll take a few generations of nones before you see politicians quit with the jesus circus bullshit....and even then, those issues which they spread their slime all over will have to be discussed and hashed out between people for whom the religious under/overtones are a non-issue and yet still find themselves opposed, before we see any change in the landscape.