(February 3, 2024 at 6:32 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:I think it's still very early; we have several months before election day. I'm willing to agree that the next POTUS will be a Democrat or Republican (rather than any of the independent or 3rd party candidates), but not necessarily Trump or Biden - at this time.(February 3, 2024 at 6:01 pm)neil Wrote: Not necessarily. It hasn't been established that Trump will be the GOP candidate, for one thing. Same goes for who could be the Dem candidate.
Yeah, but you, me, and the Pope know that in all likelihood it will be Biden against Trump. There are no Dem challengers to Biden, firstly, while on the GOP side, Haley is behind 40-70 points.
Efforts are being made to block Trump from being on ballots & if SCOTUS were to say that he's disqualified for insurrection, then obviously he'll no longer be a candidate.
With the influence peddling allegations/situation against Biden, something like an impeachment or whatever could mean he might also no longer be a candidate.
I could be wrong; I'm not a legal expert. I'm just guessing based on what's being reported in the news. If they are possible, then I think the likelihood is significant.
If you wanted me to venture a guess on who I think could be the POTUS candidates, I would say Harris vs. Haley (nothing more than just my own guess).
(February 3, 2024 at 6:32 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:What I'm trying to say is that the Gaza single-issue voters isn't necessarily what matters or the only thing that's going to matter for Biden.(February 3, 2024 at 6:01 pm)neil Wrote: It also won't be a Gaza single issue if the border issue also plays a role for enough voters. There's even plenty of other issues beyond that, such as inflation, fuel costs, rent, etc.
You missed my point, to wit, Biden needs every vote he can get, and that the margins are small enough that American Muslims staying home (2.15 million adults) could make a real difference. I'm not saying that this is the only concern-issue.
I see no reason for complacency simply because single-issue voters are nothing new.
Gaza doesn't only matter to American Muslim voters, it also matters to a broader range of American voters who aren't Muslims - regardless of whether or not any of them are single-issue voters.
It can also have an impact on Trump; some Muslim Americans vote Republican, and some of them could be Gaza single-issue voters; also, not all (non-Muslim) Republicans or Right-leaning swing voters in general are for US support of Israel's atrocities against Gaza.
