(April 11, 2014 at 11:35 pm)MindForgedManacle Wrote: No, that's clearly silly. Is the likelihood that someone owns a dog just as likely before they tell you they own one as it is after they tell you they own one?
Again, this doesn't mean that, say, Godzilla is more likely to exist than not, but that Godzilla's existence is more likely given certain pieces of evidence than if those evidences didn't exist.
I tell a town of stupid people I'm a wizard. People believe me. Does that make me more likely to be a wizard? No.
