Peak Oil

[Justtristo]

I dont know if this topic has been covered before on this forum. However feel free to insert this post into such a thread if one has already been made.

Anyway I am skeptical about this whole peak oil stuff. In particular the sort of dire predictions proponents of peak oil make. Because anybody with a good knowledge of basic economics would figure out the following like I have;

As supply of oil is outstripped by demand prices rise. However those higher prices force consumers to cut back on the use of oil. This is achieved in part by means such as development of more fuel efficient vehicles. To give an example Volkswagen has just developed the XL1 which uses just 0.9 liters of fuel for every 100 kilometers. So there can be a large amount of improvement that can be made in regard to fuel efficiency.

Also sources of oil which were not economical to exploit at lower prices suddenly become profitable to exploit when prices reach a certain level. These sources of oil would be the following; deep sea, heavy oil, oil shale, and oil sands. Not to mention substitutes to petroleum would be used more extensively as well (Biodiesel, LPG and so forth).

Sure oil prices will be higher in the long run and the era of cheap oil has ended. However I dont think the dire predictions that the peak oil crowd are making will come to pass, because of what I have described above.

Well that is my $0.02 on the subject.

[paintpooper]

Peak oil is real in the sense that it is a finite resource on a finite planet. Those are facts.

The problem with peak oil I think is that our economy, political and financial systems are based on cheap oil/energy.
We know it's a real thing, we just need to align everything with the falling production of oil.

Stop and think about how many things on a daily basis use oil, then figure out what can be replaced with some other resource.
Why did everything become plastic bags? Sure they are cheaper for now.... but you can re-grow a tree not an oil well. (Still a bag is a bag, we are just a wasteful people, you could use re-useable hemp bags for anything)

[Justtristo]

Peak oil is real in the sense that it is a finite resource on a finite planet. Those are facts.

I agree oil is a finite resource, however so is Iron Ore, Uranium or Coal and we wont run out of those resources (as available to current technology to exploit) for centuries.

Stop and think about how many things on a daily basis use oil, then figure out what can be replaced with some other resource.
Why did everything become plastic bags? Sure they are cheaper for now.... but you can re-grow a tree not an oil well. (Still a bag is a bag, we are just a wasteful people, you could use re-useable hemp bags for anything)

I am very familiar with the wide range of uses for oil, however as prices go up substitutes (like hemp bags) will be adopted. Because they will be cheaper to produce than plastic ones which use oil.

[Autumnlicious]

However, with regards to petroleum extraction, we are depleting the easy-to-get-to areas.

As such, the energy and difficulty, as well as environmental footprint (and damage?) increases with increased scarcity and depth.

Also, global petroleum, by mass, is most likely dwarfed by several orders of magnitude by iron, etc, so the analysis using that as a comparative is flawed.

[paintpooper]

However, with regards to petroleum extraction, we are depleting the easy-to-get-to areas.

As such, the energy and difficulty, as well as environmental footprint (and damage?) increases with increased scarcity and depth.

Also, global petroleum, by mass, is most likely dwarfed by several orders of magnitude by iron, etc, so the analysis using that as a comparative is flawed.

Also Iron can be melted down and re used. (Correct?)
Once oil has been used as energy and the bonds that hold the molecule together release that energy you can't get it back.

"Cheaper" does not matter IMO, using something besides plastic bags, will always been cheaper in the long run. Cheapness is relative to subsidies and largeness of the operation. But who profits off plastic bags? The people who pump the finite resource from the ground, so why make a product from something that is renewable, when they can make more money on something that is not. They would never want to get off oil until the trillions of dollars left in the ground are pumped out... even if a better alternative comes along, in a purely economic sense, and thats seems to be how people operate now a days, is money money money!