Utah one of the ten worst for sex offenders

[RichardP]

I find it interesting that Utah is one of the most religious in the nation and it also is among the top ten worst states in the nation for sex offenders. And Oklahoma is interesting too. And it is curious that some of the least religious states are among the lowest -- excluding Alaska..

I used the website: FAMILY WATCHDOG

And this is my list of the top ten worst for sex offenders per million.

1. Alaska 4379
2. Oklahoma 4230
3. Delaware 4119
4. Wisconsin 3861
5. South Dakota 3837
6. Michigan 3749
7. Texas 3483
8. Tennessee 3225
9. South Carolina 2940
10. Utah 2910


And from GALLOP here are the ten most religious states in the nation.

1. Mississippi 2596
2. Utah 2910
3. Alabama 2258
4. Louisiana 2382
5. Arkansas 2264
6. South Carolina 2940
7. Tennessee 3225
8. North Carolina 2384
9. Georgia 2181
10. Oklahoma 4230


And here are the twelve least religious states in order. (Unfortunately Alaska is among these..)

1. Vermont 1804
2. New Hampshire 1723
3. Maine 2279
4. Massachusetts 64
5. Rhode Island 572
6. Oregon 187
7. District of Columbia 1743
8. Nevada 1720
9. Hawaii 2189
10. Alaska 4379
11. Connecticut 1693
12. Washington 902



Interesting isn't it?

[Violet]

It's interesting that you make your point... with your data... which contains a counterpoint... within your data. And you even note that there is such a powerful counterpoint within your data, yet you think that it's interesting.

Alaska ranks first for 'sex offenders per million', and it is among the 'least religious states'. You observed this... soooooo: point?

[Darkstar]

@RichardP: Correlation does not prove causation.

@Violet Lilly Blossom: Outlier

Not officially taking a side here, FYI.

[Violet]

@Violet Lilly Blossom: Outlier

Exceptions disprove the rule, necessarily.

Further, there were many states listed which are not 'overly religious states' within the top ten per-capita sexual offenses list.

Even were being an 'outlier' not an observation that 'the rule' is bogus: it's hardly the only outlier in the list, if the most extreme example.

I would also question the stats, given that AK is hardly within the least religious ten states.

[Mister Agenda]

Exceptions to the rule only prove there are exceptions to the rule. Most rules are probabilistic. A 90% correlation doesn't prove causation, but it DOES prove significant correlation.

[Violet]

Exceptions to the rule only prove there are exceptions to the rule. Most rules are probabilistic. A 90% correlation doesn't prove causation, but it DOES prove significant correlation.

Then we can take any 'rules' of such sorts as not rules but as probabilities.

Far be it for us to actually find a common link that fits all of the data, no no... let's just assume that the bits which don't fit our conclusions are irrelevant exceptions to our conclusions. All black people are right-handed... except the ones that aren't, but they don't count because <arbitrary reasons>. The data correlated between 90% of it, let's just ignore that other 10%: We've proven something! HOT DOG!

Eyup, we ur scientarsts!

[John V]

Note also that the family watchdog site is only reporting what is available on state registries. The FAQs note that rules on reporting vary from state to state, and that "some states include violent and/or drug offenders on their registry." Could be that the top states just have wider reporting rules.

Didn't the range of supposed sexual offenders per million strike you as unbelievable? I mean, come on, 4,300 in some states but only 64 in Mass?

[Angrboda]

I think you'd need to examine the statistics a little more closely to determine it's merit. Utah is still home to a significant amount of fundamentalist Mormons who either practice or are sympathetic to plural marriage, often involving underage girls. ("Wikipedia notes that the number of persons living in polygamous families in Utah are estimated at 40,000 ...That's 1.4 percent of the population.")

[Violet]

Didn't the range of supposed sexual offenders per million strike you as unbelievable? I mean, come on, 4,300 in some states but only 64 in Mass?

What can I say? Overcrowded city-states totally have fewer-reported sexual offenses per million than a state which could have one person per square mile if they were spread across it (which doesn't even have a single full million people living in it).

After all, who do you know that would report a scream? That's right: nobody. But everyone and their mother are out to report a sexual offense which they've no evidence of I'm fairly certain they're just making it all up, of course.

[John V]

What can I say?

I was speaking to OP but forgot to note that. I agree with your comments and was adding to them.