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Religious Methodology
#1
Religious Methodology
Let's imagine a bookmaker has made a mistake is offering 50:50 odds on something that I know has a 5% chance of occuring. I take the bet and wager a small amount of money on it.

1 .If I win the bet was I right to take the best : No
2. If I lose the bet was I right to take the best : Still No

So regardless of the outcome it was not sensible to take the bet, even if I won. My methodology was not sound.


Now how does this tie in to Religion? With religion you are expected to belief something by using faith before there is sufficient evidence to believe it solely using evidence and reason. (If there were sufficient evidence

1. Now lets say God appears to everyone tomorrow. Was I right to be an Atheist - Yes, my methodology was sound.
2. Let's say somehow hypothetically God was disproved - Was I right to be an Atheist - Yes, but not because of the outcome, it was because of the methodology.


So criticism of either the Theist or Atheist position is down to the methodology chosen by the other party. Now the crux of this is: Theists will tend to use the same methodology as Atheists in everyday life. If the magic bean salesman comes to the door and tells them they have to have faith, I really doubt they'd buy them.

Now there are human aspects that will cause people to not rely solely on evidence and reason. Fear, Greed etc can cause people to get scammed. Many many people fall for 419 scams. Again it is their methodology that is wrong. If you could genuinely "prove" someone was going to give you 10 million pounds then of course you should take it.


Whenever you take a faith based position on one thing, but use a completely different methodology for everything else then you need to have a good reason why. I don't consider "That's the only way I can go on believing in a God" a good reason. It is no different to "That's the only way I can go on believing the magic beans will work". What is worse is that in some religious doctrine there is a hell. You are essentially sent there because:

1. Either you used the wrong methodology
or
2. You used the correct methodology (faith), but because faith can't single out the correct religion you still get sent to hell.


Sorry, probably long and boring, but any comments?
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#2
RE: Religious Methodology
I think the faith comes from popularity. Since majority of people believed in god for thousands of years faith became a habit.
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#3
RE: Religious Methodology
Flawed reasoning because it ignores the "pot odds". One would also have to include the price of the bet and the value of the prize.

A theist would argue that the prize the bookmaker is offering is not even odds (double the value of your bet) but rather an infinite prize. In which case 5% is damn good odds. I'll happily bet £10 quid into a £100 pot with 25‰ odds to win, the pot is laying me odds of 10 to 1!

The problems with Pascals Wager are different. Not least that if God does exist, he probably hates a smartarse.
"Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken."
Sith code
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#4
RE: Religious Methodology
(March 24, 2014 at 8:07 am)Jacob(smooth) Wrote: Flawed reasoning because it ignores the "pot odds". One would also have to include the price of the bet and the value of the prize.

A theist would argue that the prize the bookmaker is offering is not even odds (double the value of your bet) but rather an infinite prize. In which case 5% is damn good odds. I'll happily bet £10 quid into a £100 pot with 25‰ odds.

The problems with Pascals Wager are different. Not least that if God does exist, he probably hates a smartarse.

Get your asbestos suit cause you're going to hell Big Grin
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#5
RE: Religious Methodology
(March 24, 2014 at 8:07 am)Jacob(smooth) Wrote: Flawed reasoning because it ignores the "pot odds". One would also have to include the price of the bet and the value of the prize.

A theist would argue that the prize the bookmaker is offering is not even odds (double the value of your bet) but rather an infinite prize. In which case 5% is damn good odds. I'll happily bet £10 quid into a £100 pot with 25‰ odds to win, the pot is laying me odds of 10 to 1!

The problems with Pascals Wager are different. Not least that if God does exist, he probably hates a smartarse.

It wasn't really meant as a direct analogy. It was meant to show that you can end up with the wrong outcome, but the right methodology.
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#6
RE: Religious Methodology
How did you reckon the odds of God existing? Why not 90% instead of 5%?
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#7
RE: Religious Methodology
(March 24, 2014 at 8:30 am)ChadWooters Wrote: How did you reckon the odds of God existing? Why not 90% instead of 5%?

Why not put 90% on pixies?
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#8
RE: Religious Methodology
(March 24, 2014 at 8:30 am)ChadWooters Wrote: How did you reckon the odds of God existing? Why not 90% instead of 5%?

Well, probabilities are based on evidence...
"YOU take the hard look in the mirror. You are everything that is wrong with this world. The only thing important to you, is you." - ronedee

Want to see more of my writing? Check out my (safe for work!) site, Unprotected Sects!
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#9
RE: Religious Methodology
(March 24, 2014 at 8:13 am)FreeTony Wrote: It wasn't really meant as a direct analogy. It was meant to show that you can end up with the wrong outcome, but the right methodology.

Oh yes. In poker we call them "bad beats". You shove with aces, some idiot calls with 6, 7 off suit then hits his straight. Doesn't mean it's wrong to bet with aces. Life, Like poker, is a game of incomplete information.
"Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken."
Sith code
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#10
RE: Religious Methodology
(March 24, 2014 at 8:45 am)Esquilax Wrote:
(March 24, 2014 at 8:30 am)ChadWooters Wrote: How did you reckon the odds of God existing? Why not 90% instead of 5%?

Well, probabilities are based on evidence...

Well you can't assess probability on something you know nothing about.
Like you can't say that something can't come from nothing because you know nothing about nothing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDmQINlntJ4
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