(August 31, 2015 at 9:47 pm)Shuffle Wrote:(August 31, 2015 at 9:31 pm)thehedglin Wrote: Not quite how it works. Sure, the first coin toss you ever make might be a 50/50 split, but every toss after that is something other than an even split. Likewise, the first god proposition might have been an even split as far as correctness, but every god invented after that was not an even split.
That goes back to my equation. Do you agree with it?
It has a problem. There are more kinds of spoons than I can count, but that doesn't mean that you would divide the probability of me having one by the number of kinds that exist. Let me put it this way, if I may:
The chances of getting any sequentially specific set of cards in a traditional 52 card game of 7-card poker is:
1/(52*51*50*49*48*47*46) = 1/674,274,182,400
However, since sequence isn't generally very relevant, the chance of getting any sequentially nonspecific set is actually:
1/133,784,560
However, once you sit to play your odds of getting a hand of seven cards is 1/1. No matter how statistically near-impossible any set of cards is to get, you will still get one.
I would more generally advocate that one only leave one entrance into their mind(reason), and keep the rest of it rather closed, as it is one hell of a lot easier to shovel shit in than it is to get it out.
If the evidence and reason for you to believe something isn't really any better than the reason you should believe some rural farmer from Arkansas got anally probed by interstellar visitors, then you probably shouldn't.
If the evidence and reason for you to believe something isn't really any better than the reason you should believe some rural farmer from Arkansas got anally probed by interstellar visitors, then you probably shouldn't.
