50/50

[thehedglin]

You have obviously missed the point. 

Did I? Forgive me, but I guess I didn't understand your point, then. I suppose I will have to see if you explain it better here...

Firstly, there is no coin toss in my argument.

Indeed, I used it as a example of something analogous. The coin toss is a binary example, like yours, so it should have similar distribution properties.

Secondly, regardless of whether or not you pick the correct hand, there is still a coin.

That would be the reason that I used an example with two clear choices, instead of three. In a situation where "no coin" was a possibility, you would be at 33.3_/33.3_/33.3_ instead of 50/50. I would have had to use an analog with three choices to compensate.

There is not a 50/50 chance of there being a coin, only a 50/50 chance of picking which hand it is in.

Indeed, and in mine it is not a 50/50 chance of there being a coin, only a 50/50 chance of choosing the correct result of the flip.

Likewise, there is not a 50/50 chance that a god exists. only a 50/50 chance that one chooses correctly.

My example had a sum total of diddly-squat to do with gods existence, only the probability of the choice being correct.

As to the coin toss, every time it is tossed there is still a 50/50 chance of heads.  The number of tosses does not change the possibilities.

Let us see:

f(n)= pr(tails in first flip)×f(n-1) +
pr(heads in first flip, tails in second flip)×f(n-2) +
pr(heads in first 2 flips, tails in third flip)×f(n-3) +
pr(heads in first 3 flips, tails in third flip)×f(n-4) +
pr(heads in first 4 flips, tails in fourth flip)×f(n-5) +
pr(heads in first 5 flips, tails in fifth flip)×f(n-6) +
pr(heads in first 6 flips, tails in sixth flip)×f(n-7) +
pr(heads in first 7 flips) =
(1/2)×f(n-1) +
(1/2)2×f(n-2) +
(1/2)3×f(n-3) +
(1/2)4×f(n-4) +
(1/2)5×f(n-5) +
(1/2)6×f(n-6) +
(1/2)7×f(n-7) +
(1/2)7
Where:
f(n)=probability of success within n flips.
pr(x)=probability of x happening.

No, the number of flips changes the distribution curve, changing the odds of the sequence. Even if the odds of a single flip doesn't ever change, the odds of any sequence of numerous flips does. This also influences the probability of what will come next.