(August 31, 2015 at 10:47 pm)thehedglin Wrote:(August 31, 2015 at 9:47 pm)Shuffle Wrote: That goes back to my equation. Do you agree with it?
It has a problem. There are more kinds of spoons than I can count, but that doesn't mean that you would divide the probability of me having one by the number of kinds that exist. Let me put it this way, if I may:
The chances of getting any sequentially specific set of cards in a traditional 52 card game of 7-card poker is:
1/(52*51*50*49*48*47*46) = 1/674,274,182,400
However, since sequence isn't generally very relevant, the chance of getting any sequentially nonspecific set is actually:
1/133,784,560
However, once you sit to play your odds of getting a hand of seven cards is 1/1. No matter how statistically near-impossible any set of cards is to get, you will still get one.
But I started out with the assumption that the chance that you will pick a card to begin with is 50/50. I do not think this is the case at all, but even if it is, the chance it is a certain card is 0, since it is an infinite deck with all different cards.