(September 1, 2015 at 7:13 pm)Shuffle Wrote:(September 1, 2015 at 11:39 am)Alex K Wrote: This thread needs more Bayes
The probability that I just googled "Bayes" is not 50/50.
I alluded to it earlier, when I mentioned the medical test, the one with a 16% probability.
I would more generally advocate that one only leave one entrance into their mind(reason), and keep the rest of it rather closed, as it is one hell of a lot easier to shovel shit in than it is to get it out.
If the evidence and reason for you to believe something isn't really any better than the reason you should believe some rural farmer from Arkansas got anally probed by interstellar visitors, then you probably shouldn't.
If the evidence and reason for you to believe something isn't really any better than the reason you should believe some rural farmer from Arkansas got anally probed by interstellar visitors, then you probably shouldn't.