(September 2, 2015 at 12:46 am)Shuffle Wrote: I really meant the chances that the god they believe in exists.
Part of the confusion in this thread is that two very distinct meanings of probability are being conflated. When we are talking about beliefs we can roll out Bayes in a subjectivist probability discussion. This says absolutely nothing about the actual existence of any god. For that we need frequency probability which relies on observation, measurement, and an understanding of the causal mechanism if available.
For the existence of physical entities, probability is essentially the frequency of occurrence. Until at least one god is demonstrated, the frequency probability is zero; Bayes be damned.