Here's where we're at now:
http://www.livescience.com/42561-superco...ivity.html
The article refers to a supercomputer taking 40 minutes to model one second of human brain activity. Let's oversimplify, and say that means a human brain is 1600 times more 'powerful' than the supercomputer. The 'power' of a supercomputer will have to doubled about 10 or 11 times for it to be 'powerful' enough to simulate human brain activity in real time. If, and I concede that's a big if, Moore's Law in its general sense holds for another 17 years; that's when we can expect a super computer to be capable of that. And it (if ML holds) be compressed to desktop within another 10 years, So, if everything holds (which it sooner or later won't), roughly speaking, desktop AI as 'powerful' as a human brain in about 20 years. I'll be in my mid-seventies by then if I make it that long, but there's a chance I can have a very good simulation of a person for company then.
http://www.livescience.com/42561-superco...ivity.html
The article refers to a supercomputer taking 40 minutes to model one second of human brain activity. Let's oversimplify, and say that means a human brain is 1600 times more 'powerful' than the supercomputer. The 'power' of a supercomputer will have to doubled about 10 or 11 times for it to be 'powerful' enough to simulate human brain activity in real time. If, and I concede that's a big if, Moore's Law in its general sense holds for another 17 years; that's when we can expect a super computer to be capable of that. And it (if ML holds) be compressed to desktop within another 10 years, So, if everything holds (which it sooner or later won't), roughly speaking, desktop AI as 'powerful' as a human brain in about 20 years. I'll be in my mid-seventies by then if I make it that long, but there's a chance I can have a very good simulation of a person for company then.
I'm not anti-Christian. I'm anti-stupid.
