But calculating the a priori probability of an event that has already happened is pointless.
Imagine if, exactly one year ago I'd thought: Hey, let's calculate the probability that in exactly a years time I'll be sat at a desk in room 39B in a certain student accomodation, wearing orange socks, discussing earthquakes and evolution on an atheist forum whilst taking a break from studying for exams, and next to me will be a cup of tea which is approximately 40% full and has gone cold
.
I'd get a vanishly small probability for such an event. So what? It's already happened, so computing that probability doesn't tell me anything anyway.
Imagine if, exactly one year ago I'd thought: Hey, let's calculate the probability that in exactly a years time I'll be sat at a desk in room 39B in a certain student accomodation, wearing orange socks, discussing earthquakes and evolution on an atheist forum whilst taking a break from studying for exams, and next to me will be a cup of tea which is approximately 40% full and has gone cold
.I'd get a vanishly small probability for such an event. So what? It's already happened, so computing that probability doesn't tell me anything anyway.
Galileo was a man of science oppressed by the irrational and superstitious. Today, he is used by the irrational and superstitious who claim they are being oppressed by science - Mark Crislip
