Hi from scared Holubice

[Holubice]

But calculating the a priori probability of an event that has already happened is pointless... I'd get a vanishly small probability for such an event. So what? It's already happened, so computing that probability doesn't tell me anything anyway.

.


OK. I can accept your assertions. "Man" is just an event occurred accidentally. Basically it had to be possible to start from them:



...and to arrive here in a couple of billions of years:



...just thanks to them-self. And you have no doubts about that. Completely no doubts.
To have it a huge series of event have to occur, and you have to compute them with the combinatory computing of mathematics. To explain, suppose you have 90 numbers of a bingo and you extract a number (putting it back all the time) if you want to have ten times the number '1' you note that...



Just one possibility over 34.867.844.010 billions of billions...

And we are talking about a combination in a very small range (90 numbers) and a very short series (10 extraction). Because anybody support the evolution theory of Darwin-Wallace admit a rare event has happen, but curiously he avoids to compute how rare it has been. And you know better than me that when two events have to occur together (even if not simultaneously) you have to multiply their possibility (like in my example). When events are so highly improbable and when they are so many throughout the Physics, Chemistry and Biology you obtain one possibility over a number much larger than universe...