The Problem of Evil (XXVII)

[SteveII]

2. Christian doctrine increases probability that God allows human suffering as a result of natural disasters.
 a) The chief purpose of life is not happiness, but knowledge of God. A natural disaster may increase that knowledge.
 b) God's knowledge includes the greatest eternal good (the maximum number of people freely choosing salvation from an eternal perspective).
 c) Man's knowledge of God is considered an incommensurable good (and end in itself)

NOTE: some of the bullet points adapted from a debate between William Lane Craig vs. Kai Nielsen

To conclude, I think for the above reasons, it is probable that God and natural evil can co-exist.

A doctrine cannot increase or decrease probability of anything. Things are what they are, regardless of what people are taught to believe.

I agree. I could have written clearer. It illustrates that there might be other considerations to discuss that would improve the probabilistic argument for God and suffering to co-exist.