To circumcise or not to circumcise?

[Heatheness]

I have many more moral arguments to make, especially about what kind of messages you're sending to your kid by making that decision so they "fit in". But now I want to do some maths.

Let's be incredibly generous and say that by the time it's sharing its dick with other kids for some reason, 85% of other kids are cut.

You leave your kid intact. What is the probability they are the only kid in the group who is not cut?

If the group consists of N other kids, the probability they are all cut is (0.85)^N

5 other kids: 44%

10 other kids: 20%

15 other kids: 9%

These are some pretty narrow margins for cutting your kid. Especially since in reality the percentage will very likely have gone down, so the chances here will also go down.

It's even possible you'll end up with them in the minority. You're gambling, essentially.

Let me help you out with some math stats. The rate of circumcision in America now is only 58%, down from 85% in the 70's. It's steadily droping every year. His child will actually be the odd man out by the time he's in school.