Carrier stays in US

[Anomalocaris]

You also need to consider this 7 million does not include the cost to the entire US economy because, essentially the same AC units, delivering the same benefit and utility to the end user, if made in the US, would now impoverishes the end users all over the US more.

Carrier's annual revenue does not appear easy to find because it is privately held.  But typical appliance industry generates about $250,000 in annual revenue per employee.   The Indiana plant therefore generates roughly $250,000,000 in annual revenue.   Let's say for the sake of argument the entire sales from the plant is to American consumers.   Let's say moving the plant to Mexico allows each AC unit be sold for 5% less.  That means if the plant had been moved to Mexico, the American consumers of carrier Ac Equipment would be enriched to the tune of 5% X $250,000,000 or $12.5 million, each year, relative to if the plant stayed in Indiana.  Or keeping the plant in Indianan impoverishes the American consumer to the tune of 12.5 million a year, every year, until eventually it becomes unsustainable and either closes or moves overseS anyway, before considering the cost of the tax break.

So, by keeping the carrier plant in the US, you gain some short term savings in unemployment benefits, yes.  But in addition to the 7 million in extra tax it cost the American economy, it also cost the American economy an additional $12.5 million per year, every year.

At the same time, it disincentivize the workforce at that plant from retraining themselves for new roles in which their contribution actually enriches the American economy, rather than impoverishes it.

Americans, as a group, pay 12.5 million more a year if Carrier goes to Mexico.  But Americans also lose 50ish million in wages and benefits if Carrier goes to Mexico.  

Obviously oversimplified, but losing 50 million to save 12.5 million is a bad deal for America, isn't it?  

The sustainability is the tricky part.  First worlders are smart enough to recognize that buying things made by Malaysian children is bad for our economy, but too dumb to stop buying things made by Malaysian children.  Us older folks remember the 80's? when they were slapping made in america stickers on everything.  Basically saying, hey it cost 30 cents more, but your cousin Frank can keep his job.  And Americans said, I like Frank, but I'd REALLY like 6 nickels.

With Trump, and really, around the world as anti-globalism is picking up steam, people are basically asking the government to fix it for us, because we can't help ourselves.  I think that's what people want.  For the system to be rigged so we can't keep making the stupid choices we've been making for the past couple decades.  Because we can't help ourselves when it comes to choosing whatever costs less, no matter the circumstances.

Urrr, no.  The carrier workers who are prevented from working inefficiently mostly don't become permanently unemployed.  So the lost wage argument is specious.   What they would lose for hopefully a slightly longer period is a certain degree of cushy assurance that they can go on being inefficient, undereducated or undertrained in useful skills in areas where American can really have a competitive advantage, and still continues to rally corrupt political showmen such as the Donald to their aid in their parasitic effort to continue to pretend to add value to their country while really impoverishing the American economy.