Carrier stays in US

[Pat Mustard]

The economy could look pretty good in four years.  But it's tough to say for sure.  We're due for a market correction and that could come fairly soon.  It might be a relatively smooth one if the fed raises interest rates this month.  But if the markets continue to rise and we really are in another housing bubble, it's a question of when either --or both-- reach a peak.  If the economy tanks in 2017, it could be on the rebound in 2020 and Trump would need only blame the outgoing administration for saddling him with a ticking time bomb and boast that he turned things around.

But some moves and decisions can take time to develop.  Trump just announced that a Japanese business agreed to a $50 billion investment and 50,000 jobs in the US.  This is likely to mean a merger of Sprint and T-Mobile (which had been blocked by the Obama administration on anti-trust concerns).  How soon will that money and those jobs become available?  Even if this goes through and things go smoothly, it might still take a few years for the benefits to become obvious.  If the economy is weak in the meantime, we could end up with a different president starting 2021 with an economic boost that helps his/her approval ratings while Trump goes down as a failure.

Timing is very important and history shows us that the economy is unpredictable and can make a president seem like a disaster or a legend.  Can Trump ride out an inevitable slump, and will his patience be rewarded with a timely recovery?

What are the odds of said investment being actually close to even 10% of what's being trumpeted? When ordinary politicians lie through their teeth on this kind of stuff (for example Irish politicians often fold in construction work as new jobs when announcing a factory being set up, despite construction companies not hiring anybody for the job) what chance a patological liar like Trump manages to be on the same planet as reality?

Frankly I bet this "investment" will be a lot smaller and deliver a scant few thousand non- permanent contract jobs. Unless it's a government contract being given without tender, where the only addition will be a lot of skimming and some nice fat backhanders to Trump and his team.