Extraterrestrials

[FatAndFaithless]

It's probable that in the inconceivably-vast universe there somewhere exists some form of something we'd call 'life'. It's less probable that it's intelligent life. It's even less probable that it's capable of language and communication. It's even less probable that it's capable of building/maintaining civilizations. It's even less probable that it's capable of inter-planetary travel. It's even less probable that that life is capable of inter-solar-system travel. It's even less probable that it exists close enough to our specific planet (in the OCEAN of other potential locales) to bother coming here. It's even less probable that it would have the technology to arrive, colonize, and come/go undetected among our populations (for whatever reason it might have).

Every time you add an assumption to the statement, it becomes less likely. The statement that some form of some life probably exists somewhere in the universe is pretty uncontroversial simply due to the gargantuan numbers that we're dealing with. But as you add assumptions the numbers go from gargantuan to extremely tiny, and making assertions based on extremely tiny numbers just isn't good enough. That's where that whole 'evidence' thing comes in, as much of a pain in the ass that it is.

I'd be willing to go on any record saying that I believe life in some form more likely than not exists somewhere, but anything after that - about what kind of life it is, where it is, what capabilities/characteristics it has - simply cannot be justified until actual evidence is produced. And as we've seen with other propositions, just making shit up or pointing to gaps to fill with fantasy isn't the answer.