RE: Hong Kong.........
August 14, 2019 at 5:43 pm
(This post was last modified: August 14, 2019 at 6:06 pm by Anomalocaris.)
Hong Kong's importance to China as an economic hub has declined tremendously since the China has taken it over in 1997. It's importance to China been surpassed in almost every measure by some other city in China, and if anything, capital now flows from China into Hong Kong, not the other way around. This is precisely why Xi is likely to feel he has a strong hand, and why he has not yet sent in the army:
1. The young people clamoring for democracy is but an irritant, because business and established wealth in Hong Kong knows their continued prosperity depends more on China than China's prosperity depends on Hong Kong. This may well be the reason why he has not sent in the Chinese army yet, because he thinks once the business of the city has been disrupted long enough by the protests, the real powers that be in Hong Kong knows which side their bread is buttered and will force an effective end to the protests.
2. Even if things don't quiet down, and instead threaten Chinese rule in Hong Kong, Hong Kong is no longer so important to China that he can't afford to break it. It is no longer than Goose that lays the golden egg for China. So he call afford to kill the goose as a last resort and send in the army.
The main lever Hong Kong has is not its own importance to China anymore. The main lever is in China's relation with Taiwan. Uniting all "Chinadom", in this case including both mainland and Taiwan, is something that strikes a very deep chord with the Chinese because of their history. The legitimacy of the communist party in China actually stems to a high degree from preventing any part of old pre-Manchu imperial China from breaking away and gaining independence or be subsumed by another country. That includes Taiwan. But its future legitimacy will depend on actually brining Taiwan to heel. It hopes to do this without war, through a combination of threats and enticements. The enticement is China offered to form a union with Taiwan rather than subjugating Taiwan. Under the Union Taiwan will have access to the Chinese market but will be allowed to remain completely self-governing with its current political system intact, so long as it submits its defense and foreign policy to Beijing. The example that such as a system is workable with communist china as partner is to be Hong Kong.
I think it is not unfair to say Xi and communist party of China will give up a lot more to prevent Taiwan from declearing formal independence and to affect a peaceful reunion with Taiwan than either will to coddle protesters in Hong Kong at this point in time.
If China bloodily crushes Hong Kong out of spite, then no one in Taiwan could possibly ne enticed by a union with China, so any chance china might peacefully reunite with Taiwan is also gone for the foreseeably future. Instead the nightmare for communist legitimacy - Taiwan declaring formal independence and the communists can't effectively stop or reverse it - is more likely to come true.
On the other hand, if Taiwan does something now to make China think Taiwan is about to declare independence soon anyway, then I think that would precipitate a immediate bloody crack down in Hong Kong because the Xi and the communists would have little to lose by it, but rather may intimidate Taiwan with a show of resolve and evidence they mean business and would accept whatever sacrifice it takes to impose order and buttress its own rule.
1. The young people clamoring for democracy is but an irritant, because business and established wealth in Hong Kong knows their continued prosperity depends more on China than China's prosperity depends on Hong Kong. This may well be the reason why he has not sent in the Chinese army yet, because he thinks once the business of the city has been disrupted long enough by the protests, the real powers that be in Hong Kong knows which side their bread is buttered and will force an effective end to the protests.
2. Even if things don't quiet down, and instead threaten Chinese rule in Hong Kong, Hong Kong is no longer so important to China that he can't afford to break it. It is no longer than Goose that lays the golden egg for China. So he call afford to kill the goose as a last resort and send in the army.
The main lever Hong Kong has is not its own importance to China anymore. The main lever is in China's relation with Taiwan. Uniting all "Chinadom", in this case including both mainland and Taiwan, is something that strikes a very deep chord with the Chinese because of their history. The legitimacy of the communist party in China actually stems to a high degree from preventing any part of old pre-Manchu imperial China from breaking away and gaining independence or be subsumed by another country. That includes Taiwan. But its future legitimacy will depend on actually brining Taiwan to heel. It hopes to do this without war, through a combination of threats and enticements. The enticement is China offered to form a union with Taiwan rather than subjugating Taiwan. Under the Union Taiwan will have access to the Chinese market but will be allowed to remain completely self-governing with its current political system intact, so long as it submits its defense and foreign policy to Beijing. The example that such as a system is workable with communist china as partner is to be Hong Kong.
I think it is not unfair to say Xi and communist party of China will give up a lot more to prevent Taiwan from declearing formal independence and to affect a peaceful reunion with Taiwan than either will to coddle protesters in Hong Kong at this point in time.
If China bloodily crushes Hong Kong out of spite, then no one in Taiwan could possibly ne enticed by a union with China, so any chance china might peacefully reunite with Taiwan is also gone for the foreseeably future. Instead the nightmare for communist legitimacy - Taiwan declaring formal independence and the communists can't effectively stop or reverse it - is more likely to come true.
On the other hand, if Taiwan does something now to make China think Taiwan is about to declare independence soon anyway, then I think that would precipitate a immediate bloody crack down in Hong Kong because the Xi and the communists would have little to lose by it, but rather may intimidate Taiwan with a show of resolve and evidence they mean business and would accept whatever sacrifice it takes to impose order and buttress its own rule.
