Ecology topic

[Anomalocaris]

Climate change could cost the U.S. up to 10.5 percent of its GDP by 2100, study finds

For the United States, the study finds that if emissions of greenhouse gases are not significantly cut in keeping with the goals of the Paris accord, the country could see a 10.5 percent cut in real income by 2100. The hardest hit countries will be poorer, tropical nations, but in contrast to previous studies, the new paper finds that no country will be spared and none will see a net benefit economically from global warming.

Other countries will experience major losses, too, if emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases are not reduced soon. Canada, for example, could lose more than 13 percent of its GDP by 2100, while Japan, India and New Zealand could be subjected to a 10 percent hit as well.

“The UK recently had its hottest day on record. Train tracks buckled, roads melted, and thousands were stranded because it was out of the norm. Such events take an economic toll, and will only become more frequent and severe without policies to address the threats of climate change,” Mohaddes said in a statement.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2...udy-finds/

The figure is, of course, incomplete and misleading.

A reasonable rate of long term growth for the US economy might be 2-2.5% per year.

Over the 80 years to 2100, this growth rate will see the US economy enlarge by a factor of roughly 6.   If we lose 10% of our economy to global warming by 2100, it would be instead of growing by 6 times, our economy will grow by 5.4 times.

Convert that into annual growth rate shows this represent an reduction of average annual growth rate of a mere 0.1-0.15%.

Yes, the cumulative loss of wealth over 80m years is substantial.  But a loss of annual growth rate of 0.1-0.15% out of 2-2.5% each year would be barely noticeable, and hardly by itself likely to result in severe dislocation. 

The greatest disruptive impact of climate change will not be felt in relative developed and economies with substantial financial and economic resources and generally an large excess of wealth over subsistence level, such as the US or Canada, or China. Or even India.    It would be on marginal economies that have limited ability to either feed itself or produce enough of value to trade for food.