The Watchmaker: my fav argument

[John 6IX Breezy]

As a result, most times the simpler explanation will be more probable simply because of its lack of complexity.

I agree with your overall argument and use of probability, but I don't know if I agree with this particular sentence. As an example, the original heliocentric model assumed that orbits were perfect circles rather than ellipses. This oversimplification was arguably as "improbable" as the overcomplication of Ptolomy's epicycles.

I would also like to forward the perspective that complexity can be interpreted as increasing the resolution of our models, allowing for a clearer image.