The Watchmaker: my fav argument

[polymath257]

If design is to be a reasonable explanation at all, it *has* to give observational differences with naturalism.

You use a lot of ifs throughout your arguments and it becomes hard to tell when you're making a claim about design, or just adding conditional layers to your hypothetical cake (no slight intended I just couldn't think of a different analogy lol). So can you clarify the quote above—do you or do you not think there are observable differences between the two?

And secondly, why is the "reasonableness" of design dependent on a contrast with naturalism? This implies that design is unreasonable if no difference exist. In which case shouldn't both perspectives be equally reasonable or unreasonable?

I am not making a claim about design. I am a general policy on how to approach any 'explanation'.

if there is only one predictive theory, that is the one that is accepted, at least until another comes up.

If there are two theories being discussed, the first question is whether there is an observational difference between the two. if there is, the conflict, such as it is, can be resolved by observation.

If there is no observational difference between the two, the one that makes more assumptions about non-observable entities is the one that is dis-favored.

In the case of design, we have good methods for telling whether or not certain types of things are designed by humans and somewhat poorer ways to determine design by other living things on Earth. Those methods all contrast what can be done by living things as opposed to what happens in their absence. because there are observational tests for design in those cases, design can be a reasonable explanation then.

But, to go further and claim the universe at large is designed goes *way* beyond what we can observe. In particular, it makes an assumption of entities with no observational evidence (the designer). In that case, the explanations that do not use such entities are preferred *unless* an observational difference between design and non-design can be elaborated. At this point, that has not been the case.