Mixing up your taser with your handgun

[Anomalocaris]

Riiiiiiiiight.  If taser and gun have only ever been mistaken one for the other 15 times, explain how exactly does it follow that the next time it happened it must be more likely ( much more, if we catch your drift) to be by design than by accident?

 

Easy if it occurs again (assuming it ever occurs again) then it's just as likely or even less likely to be an accident. That seems pretty self-explanatory. Not sure what the point of this comment was 

Was 14 of those 15 times demonstrably by design?

None of the others were by design as far as has been demonstrated. But none of the others as I understand it had failsafes against that very scenario as unlikely to occur as it was.

‘Easy” and “Seems pretty self explanatory” do not qualify as “explain how exactly it follows”.

Not only does it not qualify as an explanation, it is also wrong

Fundamentally, The probability of an event happening at all encompasses all possible causes, including design, accident, as well as all others.     Whether an individual event is more likely to result from one cause rather than another cause depends on the relative probability of each cause, not the total probability of the occurance of the event.    

The fact that only 15 events occurred out of a totel or however many cops-hours where both guns and tasers were carried just says shooting off one when the other is called for is quite an unlikely event.   It says nothing about whether, when it occurs, it was more likely to have been by design or accident.   To address that requires you to look at the ratio of occurance of design to that of accident amongst the 15

That’s why I asked you if 14 out of 15 were caused by design.    You said no, not one of the 15 was by design.  So the basis for estimating the odds of it being by design:  0 out of 15.  The basis for,estimating the odds of it being caused by factors other than design:  15 out of 15

That would say before evidence of Potter’s actual reason for her action can be gained, the expected probability of her action being unintentional is overwhelmingly greater than that of her actions being intentional.