RE: Nuclear power
March 15, 2022 at 12:32 pm
(This post was last modified: March 15, 2022 at 1:06 pm by Anomalocaris.)
(March 15, 2022 at 6:13 am)Jehanne Wrote: Only one nuclear power plant exists in Africa, in the country of South Africa; Africa is 16% of the World's population. Carbon emissions continue to rise at 2 to 3 ppm per annum over the last decade up from 0.5 ppm during the 19th-century and 1 ppm during the middle of the 20th-century, and so, nuclear power isn't reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Yes, and how much would carbon emission have been if base loaded generation served by nuclear power is served instead by some other form of base loaded generation available between middle of 20th century and now?
The fundamental reality is existing nuclear power technology is economical only if concentrated generation of at least 800-1000mw capacity makes sense and the economic value of stable 24/7 generation at ball park 80–1000 mw is high. This in turn requires fairly high degree of transmission infrastructure development, which necessitate a fairly high and concentrated electric demand occassions by considerable economic development.
Much of Africa had simply been too poor and underdeveloped to benefit from nuclear power. 70% of total electric demand in subsaharan Africa is in the nation of South Africa. 600 million Africans, twice as many people as in the US, have no access to electricity at all. Overall the demand is too low, too dispersed, spread over too many national jurisdictions, too uneven across the day, and transmission infrastructure too spotty and too low in capacity. The threshold of economic developement required to enable nuclear power to pay is probably somewhere in the upper half of middle income level in terms of GDP, say annual GDP per capita on PPP basis of $10,000-15,000, for a population base of several tens of millions, Much of Africa is at a third of that or less.
It’s like this. A shiny new factory is of much more value where roads and supply chain is already well developed. Where these are absent, cottage workshops may make more sense.
As a more tangible indication of what level of develop is required for nuclear power to begin to make sense, China only started to develop nuclear power during the last 20 years. When large parts of Africa achieves GDP per capita on par with where China was 20 years ago, nuclear power will likely blossom in Africa too.