RE: Russia and Ukraine
March 28, 2022 at 5:22 pm
(This post was last modified: March 28, 2022 at 5:25 pm by Anomalocaris.)
(March 28, 2022 at 4:22 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote:(March 28, 2022 at 11:51 am)Anomalocaris Wrote: exactly what does a division being destroyed mean? and how much of what is meant is true? there have been a lot of over the top propaganda claims about casualties inflicted, but my impression is ukrainian exaggeration and falsifications have been more egregious than Russian ones.
Depends on the organization. It means alot less for a russion division than an american division. It means that the majority of the trigger pullers or their vehicles are casualties. So, say you lose your infantry - but still have your armor and supply. Your unit has been destroyed. Routed on the battlefield and forced to reorganize with other groups which are likely to have suffered the same loss. Say you have your infantry, but you've lost 1/2 or more of your armor? Same thing. Still have your armor and your infantry, lost supply? You haven't been routed..yet, but you've been defeated in detail and almost certainly will be..presently.
Your impression would be wrong. Incompetence, grift, and an organizational structure designed for small defensive units is the 1-2-3 here. On the other end, ukraine is using tactics and weapons informed by our misadventures in the middle east these past few decades. Essentially, there was no way that the russian forces could have had a credible plan in the case that an advance failed (assuming they had one for winning, to begin with), and ukraine is only doing those things which might lead to an advance failing. It'll be harder going getting the russians out of ukraine than it was to stop them from getting in. A lesson learned too late for ukraine - but on full display for every other nation of the world, now taking notes.
-as an addendum, about lessons learned too late. I'm sure that someone will remind me that ukraines military was in shambles, itself, a few years back - so what could they have done? Turns out, russia is so bad at this the locals can manage the defense. Would have been true then as well. The audacity of the plan with regards to the little green men caught the world flat footed...but...it seems now like there was a reason that this was russia's first step in the invasion. It's what they could pull off - realistically. I've been calling the chickens my little green men for a bit since realizing this. They're already grazing disputed pastures..have been for years, no one said anything.
i think that might broadly summarize how a notional division might be counted as destroyed in a honest war game, either real war game in war colleges, or war gaming with serious amateurs.
however I highly doubt that state reflect the current state of the Russian formation in question.
At best, from the perspective of those making the claim of that division having been destroyed, units from this division was engaged, causalities were inflicted, and its units are no longer to be identified on the front line. so the most extravagantly optimistic interpretation possible is placed on this development. In reality the division’s units are likely simply pulled back for rest or redeployment.
At worst, this was just a pure bullshit story concocted to leverage the reputation of the unit for a one time propaganda boost.
The style and intensity of the fighting we’ve seen, in my opinion, simply does not support the destruction of division sized mechanized units in a couple of weeks of fighting.