RE: Russia and Ukraine
April 4, 2022 at 3:35 pm
(This post was last modified: April 4, 2022 at 3:38 pm by Anomalocaris.)
This is no longer a bipolar world of US and USSR providing the main strength of two opposing global camps. So Russia is not really in a demographic contest with the US.
They remain a regional power in several regions, so they in a long term demographic contest with all the states directly adjacent to them. In that their main rivals are China, former Soviet republics, and the EU, particularly eastern EU.
They can’t do anything about China because China has already won decisively for the foreseeable future even if they are no longer win-Ning. But since around 2013, they’ve been doing well compare to most of the former Soviet republics, particularly Ukraine. They are also doing well against key stated of EU.
Unless this war go nuclear, no one thinks this war will take a toll on Russian demographics similar to WWII. But it is well to keep in mind that Russian willingness and capacity to absorb casualties is still in a different class from western states.
The army that ran roughshod over the Syrians wasn’t an field army. It was special forces that conducted a large and extended special force operation.
They remain a regional power in several regions, so they in a long term demographic contest with all the states directly adjacent to them. In that their main rivals are China, former Soviet republics, and the EU, particularly eastern EU.
They can’t do anything about China because China has already won decisively for the foreseeable future even if they are no longer win-Ning. But since around 2013, they’ve been doing well compare to most of the former Soviet republics, particularly Ukraine. They are also doing well against key stated of EU.
Unless this war go nuclear, no one thinks this war will take a toll on Russian demographics similar to WWII. But it is well to keep in mind that Russian willingness and capacity to absorb casualties is still in a different class from western states.
(April 4, 2022 at 3:00 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Russia no longer has the population required for this to be feasible. They have half our pop, and the same birth rates. Broadly speaking, no reference to the soviet union is accurate with respect to the russian state today.
As far as the bolt actions conscripts have been showing up with - garbage. There are many, many, perfectly wonderful rifles that are garbage on a modern battlefield no matter how much training the person has - or how little the other guy has. In fairness to russian planners...it's unclear that it would even matter if their infantry were competently equipped. It's all a bit difficult to swallow, really. This is the clown army that ran roughshod over syrians as the rest of the world watched.
The army that ran roughshod over the Syrians wasn’t an field army. It was special forces that conducted a large and extended special force operation.
