Whether the prior probability is a guess, or based on sound reasoning doesn't matter. Eventually, data will update the probability toward a better guess via inference.
However, a guess of 0 or 1 never updates.
Ideally, one would use the best available data (i.e. an initial distribution of data, or a result of previous Bayesian analysis). When applied to a scientific theory, the prior probability would be a guess of the certainty around the null hypothesis.
However, a guess of 0 or 1 never updates.
Ideally, one would use the best available data (i.e. an initial distribution of data, or a result of previous Bayesian analysis). When applied to a scientific theory, the prior probability would be a guess of the certainty around the null hypothesis.
