We can have 8 billion people at the end of this century despite an 1.5 degree global temperature rise because:
1. We are considerably more than 5% below the global carrying capacity even accounting for the fact that utilization of available carrying capacity will decline as a large percentage of the global become more developed and its population grow wealthier.
2. A increase in utilization efficiency of greater than 5% is expected over the next few decades
The threat doesn’t come from exceeding diminished total carrying capacity of the globe. It comes from conflict and population movements arising out of uneven distribution of the loss of carrying capacity.
We could see a billion people dying from killing each other because some people resent the fact that they suffer loses due to what they perceive to be other people’s behavior, or because those with surplus carrying capacity will kill to w preserve the ability to capitalize on the bonus regardless of consequences to others. But we won’t see a billion people dying merely because climate change really makes it impossible to support them.
1. We are considerably more than 5% below the global carrying capacity even accounting for the fact that utilization of available carrying capacity will decline as a large percentage of the global become more developed and its population grow wealthier.
2. A increase in utilization efficiency of greater than 5% is expected over the next few decades
The threat doesn’t come from exceeding diminished total carrying capacity of the globe. It comes from conflict and population movements arising out of uneven distribution of the loss of carrying capacity.
We could see a billion people dying from killing each other because some people resent the fact that they suffer loses due to what they perceive to be other people’s behavior, or because those with surplus carrying capacity will kill to w preserve the ability to capitalize on the bonus regardless of consequences to others. But we won’t see a billion people dying merely because climate change really makes it impossible to support them.
