Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

The Kherson thing is a textbook riverine operation that was amusingly helped along by russia flooding the banks when they bolted. I wouldn't expect them to move far from the banks for some time....but then again....ukranians, they do unexpected shit as a rule.

Southern ukraines climate is not at all like the north or east. An abrams is lighter on the ground than a human foot, mull that over. They could use abrams anytime there all year round -but they won't. Ukranian command is not comfortable with the losses that western style and geared offensives would incur in their particular battlespace. Basically, they can't cross the river with tanks because they're afraid of the Gators. They've been really pressuring airfields near the contact line. Something as simple as a hut with a grass airfield can warrant a visit from HIMARS. They've also been building up a fleet of technicals and jury rigged utility vehicles for close range AA. A similar dynamic has appeared with the use of US IFVs and MRAPs. They're worth more (to ukraine) as extraction vehicles and ambulances than they would be supporting abrams in a general push. The Leos are also light footed (less so than abrams iirc) - and they've been working up in Avdiivka with bradleys.

The probing attacks and light infantry tactics are going to continue until one side or the other creates or effects a concrete advantage over the other in any of a number of critical tasks. In the near term, don't be surprised to see ukraine retaliate for last winter with their homegrown long range weapons, partisans, and sf (and, ofc, the deniable use of weapons provided to them). The chances of the power going out in moscow are decidedly non-zero.